NFL Mock Draft 1.0: A Post-Combine Look at the Board

There are a pair of very talented pass rushers also in the conversation for the first overall pick, but neither is generational. So instead, the Jaguars invest in protecting Trevor Lawrence’s blindside and make Neal the first Alabama player to be selected with the top pick in the NFL Draft since running back Harry Gilmer in 1948.

Detroit goes with the higher-floor option of the two elite edge rushers in this class, keeping Hutchinson in the state of Michigan. This pick could have a trickle-down impact on the Patriots too. There’s been rumors that the Lions could be looking to move on from former Patriots edge defender Trey Flowers, and landing one of the edge rushers at the top of the board would only make such a move more realistic. Could it set up a reunion for Flowers in New England?

There’s a number of ways the Texans could go with this pick, but it’s the two top decision makers in Houston that make Stingley the most logical choice. General manager Nick Caserio comes from a Patriots program that traditionally builds defenses from back-to-front, while new head coach Lovie Smith’s background is working with defensive backs. There’s a lot of talk about Stingley falling coming out of the Combine, but that’s likely just recency bias after he sat out the workouts. Don’t be fooled, he’s a top-five caliber player.

The Jets heavily focused on the offensive side of the ball in last year’s draft, so this year they start on defense. Hamilton can play a wide range of safety roles, and his selection could end up being a make-good for the Jets’ whole Jamal Adams saga.

The New York Giants may have had the worst offensive line in the NFL last year. Luckily for them, a potential franchise left tackle falls to them in Ekwonu.

Some projections have the Panthers taking a quarterback here, but there’s too much talent on the board to reach for a QB in a historically bad year at the position. Instead, Carolina prepares its offensive line for the signal caller it’ll trade for or draft in 2023, and adds Cross to bolster things up front.

Given the fact the Giants could likely be in the market for a quarterback next year, it would make sense for them to move back and add draft capital in 2023. However, Thibodeaux’s fall is too good to pass up. At one point, the Oregon edge rusher was the projected top pick in this draft. Getting him at seven is a steal.

Atlanta needs a receiver, but none have come off the board yet. That means the Falcons are comfortable moving down, and adding future draft assets that could help them land Matt Ryan’s eventual replacement.

Falcons get:

–12th overall pick

–77th overall pick

–2023 3rd-round pick

Vikings get:

–8th overall pick

–113th overall pick

The Vikings get aggressive here to move up and land some much-needed help in their secondary. With a strong showing at the combine, Gardner separated himself as the clear CB2 in this class and Minnesota makes sure he doesn’t fall out of the single digits.

The Broncos are another team that realistically could go with a quarterback, but instead here they take advantage of a strong top-tier edge class. With Von Miller gone and Bradley Chubb struggling to stay on the field, Denver looks to add another cornerstone pass rusher by drafting Karlaftis.

Having already added on defense with the fourth overall pick, the Jets now turn their attention towards getting help for Zach Wilson. With Elijah Moore established in the slot, they look for a big body outside receiver and make London the first pass catcher off the board. Worst-case scenario, he replaces Corey Davis who has an out in his contract after next season. Best case scenario, that duo becomes a matchup nightmare on the perimeter with Moore working on the inside.

Teams like the Lions, Giants, and Panthers likely will be back picking towards the top of the draft next year, where they can grab a quarterback in a stronger class. The Commanders however have a good enough roster in a wild enough division that that’s not a guarantee for them. Knowing that, they take advantage of this draft spot and make Willis the first quarterback selection of the 2022 Draft. There’s not a lot of consensus on what the QB board will look like come draft day, but Willis’ strong Combine performance and fit in Washington’s existing offensive system make him the pick here.

See Pick 8 for trade details

Patience pays off for Terry Fontenot and the Falcons. With Calvin Ridley out for the 2022 season, the Falcons need to get Matt Ryan a top target if they hope to capitalize on his closing window. Olave is actually a very similar receiver to Ridley in terms of skill set, so he’s a logical fit who should be able to hit the ground running in Atlanta.

The run on wide receivers continues. Looking to replace Odell Beckham at the outside receiver position, the Browns snag maybe the most polarizing pass catcher in this class in Burks. His ability with the ball in his hands would make him a great fit in Cleveland’s offensive system.

After losing Lamar Jackson to injuries for multiple games last year, Baltimore should make it a point this offseason to upgrade their protection. With starting center Bradley Bozeman set to hit free agency, Linderbaum is a logical replacement. Centers don’t usually go this high in the draft, but Linderbaum isn’t most centers.

With the first of their three first-round picks, the Eagles add some much-needed linebacker help. This one is pretty straight forward – the Eagles need linebackers and Lloyd is clearly the top linebacker in this class.

Because the Eagles have such a bounty of draft capital both this year and next year, they can afford to get creative with some of their picks. That’s the case here, as they take a player with monumental upside in Davis. The star from the Combine would create a fearsome pairing with Fletcher Cox in the middle of the Philly defense, and could be the eventual replacement for the 31-year-old nose tackle whose name has come up in trade rumors in recent years.

The way things are trending, it appears as though the Chargers are going to lose star receiver Mike Williams to free agency. Not wanting to make things harder on their star young quarterback Justin Herbert, they grab a replacement in Wilson.

The Saints seem prime to go through at least a semi-rebuild over the next year or two, so right now it’s all about adding talent. New head coach Dennis Allen’s background is on the defensive side of the football, so he has the team add the best defensive player available at this point, Dean.

The Eagles look to move down here and spread the value of their third first-round pick. They manage find a trading partner at the back end of the round in the Chiefs.

Eagles get:

–30th overall pick

–132nd overall pick

–2023 2nd-round pick

–2023 4th-round pick

Chiefs get:

–19th overall pick

–164th overall pick

Brett Veach has shown he isn’t afraid to be aggressive in the first round. With Frank Clark a logical salary cap-related cut, Kansas City moves up to grab his replacement. At this point in the draft Ojabo, who had 11 sacks last year for Michigan, can likely be categorized as a steal.

Could the Patriots get jumped on the board by a couple of familiar faces? Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels pull ahead of Bill Belichick with this trade, and use it to snag a player the Patriots very well may have their eyes on.

Steelers get:

–22nd overall pick

–125th overall pick

–2023 6th-round pick

Raiders get:

–20th overall pick

McDaniels and Ziegler know they need a speedy wide receiver to replace Henry Ruggs. At the same time, they know the Patriots are likely looking for such a player as well. Vegas moves up two spots (mirroring a deal pulled off by the Eagles in 2019), jumping the Patriots to take Williams.

With J.C. Jackson seemingly on his way out of New England, cornerback unquestionably becomes the biggest need for the Patriots. They’re able to grab Booth after a slight slide to 21. Booth is the kind of long, athletic press corner that Bill Belichick generally targets, and seems ready for a significant role in his first year in the NFL.

Hand size concerns will hurt Pickett’s draft stock, but it’s a good thing the Steelers have already seen him play in Pittsburgh. The 2021 ACC Player of the Year remains at Heinz Field as the potential heir apparent to Ben Roethlisberger.

Last season, Arizona had one of the best edge-rushing duos in football in Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt. Now Jones in a pending free agent and Watt has just one year left on his deal and is coming off an injury that cost him most of the 2021 season. Looking to add some youth to the group, they take Walker off the record-breaking Georgia defense.

The Cowboys offensive line isn’t what it once was. Regression has hit the group hard, especially on the interior. Jerry Jones sees a chance with Green to address a need and pick a player from an in-state school, and he can’t pass it up.

Buffalo’s lack of depth in the secondary got exposed last year when Tre White was lost for the season due to a knee injury. Knowing there’s likely shootouts against teams with deep receiving groups (Chiefs, Bengals) in their future, the Bills use McDuffie’s slight slide as a chance to sure up their secondary.

Last year’s playoff loss to the Bengals made it clear – if the Titans are going to make any real noise it’s going to be on the back of the running game, not throwing the ball. Looking to make things easier up the middle, the Titans grab Johnson, who played with Mike Vrabel’s son Tyler at BC.

With Tom Brady’s retirement making an already bad salary cap situation worse, the Buccaneers simply need to add talent. Wyatt is clearly the best player on the board at this point, and will be a welcomed addition to a defensive line set to lose multiple contributors to free agency this spring.

200 million dollars later, it looks like Aaron Rodgers is going to end up staying in Green Bay. Since this is the case he’ll likely ask the team to get him another weapon. Dotson’s shiftiness and formational versatility would play well in the Packers’ system, especially if he’s seeing mostly single coverage while teams key in on Davante Adams.

Whoever is under center for the Dolphins moving forward, whether it’s Tua Tagovailoa or another quarterback, Miami needs to protect the quarterback position better than they did in 2021. They take the best offensive lineman left on the board in Penning, whose athleticism will play well in Mike McDaniel’s ‘Shanahan’ offense.

Looking to get back into the first round after moving their first round pick last year to acquire Trey Lance, the 49ers pull of a trade structured similarly to the one the Ravens used in 2018 to land Lamar Jackson. Having already made two first-round picks, Philly is fine spreading out its draft capital a little further, turning one top-60 pick into two.

49ers get:

–30th overall pick

–121st overall pick

Eagles get:

–61st overall pick

–131st overall pick

–2023 2nd-round pick

With this trade, the 49ers add Johnson to their already impressive edge rotation. They have a number of capable defenders playing opposite Nick Bosa, but none are the kind of established threat that will draw attention away from the two-time Pro Bowler. At the very least, Johnson adds depth to the rotation, but if he hits his ceiling he gives San Francisco what could be a devastating one-two punch on the edge.

Let’s not make this any more complicated than it needs to be. We all saw how the Bengals failed to protect Joe Burrow during the playoffs. Raimann is the best offensive lineman available, so he’s the pick.

Rounding out the first round, the Lions grab a high-upside quarterback in Ridder. This is a low-risk, high-reward play for Detroit – if Ridder plays well, they get their quarterback of the future 32nd overall. If he’s not the guy, they have two more first-round picks next year thanks to the Matthew Stafford trade, and can take another shot at finding ‘the guy.’