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Why are the Buffalo Bills home underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens in Sunday's AFC Divisional playoffs? Teams fight all year for seeding to avoid playing road games in January at places like Buffalo and Kansas City. It is because the home teams in those cities have a huge advantage. And in recent years the teams that play there, the Bills and Chiefs, have been really, really good.
So what gives?
Sure the Ravens are also really good. But I would have expected the Bills to be a 1.5 to 2.5 point home favorite.
So when the Vegas odds makers tell me the Ravens are favored they are saying a couple of things. First of all Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is awesome. He is the likely NFL MVP for the regular season. However, his track record in the post season not great. The odds also tell me that the Bills defense is suspect. They've tapped down bad teams like the Patriots and Jets. But the Bills recently gave up 42 points to the Lions and 44 points to the Rams!
The Bills defense is now charged with stopping the running game of Jackson and the second best running back in the league in Derrick Henry. And with the injury of speedy wide receiver Zay Flowers the Ravens coaching staff may stay out of their own way and stick to a running game on a cold Sunday night.
BUFFALO BILLS HOME UNDERDOGS
By the way the temperature in Buffalo Sunday night will be 7 degrees with a chance of snow. That is conducive to a successful running attack.
On the other side the Bills are very familiar with game planning for 7 degree nights. Quarterback Josh Allen can run or throw and running back James Cook is built for games like this. His 1009 yards rushing pales in comparison to Henry's but he has punched in 16 touchdowns this season. Why are the Buffalo Bills home underdogs?
Buffalo Bills Home Underdogs: It is early but I like the Bills at home this weekend. For more NFL talk and analysis tune in each weekday to Craig Shemon and Company from 2-6pm on ESPN Southwest Florida.
