Could Florida Get a Large Earthquake in the Next 100 Years?

It's not common, but Florida does get earthquakes. As the world's climate is evolving, is there the possibility of Florida getting a large earthquake in the next 100 years?

Florida is one of those lucky states that doesn't see earthquakes too often, much like Michigan and the upper Midwest. But, it does happen. Actually, Midwest residents were surprised last Friday (Aug. 2), when the U.S. Geological Survey confirmed that an earthquake was centered in Lake Michigan with a magnitude of 2.9. Experts reported the earthquake around 9:18 a.m. EST, and the quake was positioned about 24 miles east-southeast from Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin. The recent earthquake was a small one, with the magnitude of 2.9, but some residents on the Wisconsin side of Lake Michigan said they felt it.

So, why are earthquakes uncommon in Florida? "Earthquakes in Florida are extremely rare because there are no active fault zones or plate boundaries," WFLA Max Defender 8 Meteorologist Amanda Holly told WFLA.com. "The closest fault line to Florida runs through the Caribbean Sea, just north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic and south of Cuba toward Guatemala."

What are the chances Florida could also get a large earthquake, like this Midwest one? It's actually possible that Florida could get a damaging earthquake in the next 100 years, but don't freak out, because it's not too likely. Of course, our area doesn't have the risk associated with places such as California or Alaska. But, a recent report from the experts at USGS.gov lays out the likelihood of getting a large earthquake throughout the U.S.

According to a U.S. Geological Survey that was conducted by more than 50 scientists and engineers, around 75% of the U.S. could experience "damaging earthquake shaking" in the coming years. To conduct the study, they used the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) "to create a color-coded map that pinpoints where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur based on insights from seismic studies, historical geologic data, and the latest data-collection technologies." The study also noted that earthquakes are already a reality for much of the U.S., as "37 U.S. states have experienced earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5 during the last 200 years, highlighting a long history of seismic activity across this country."

Now, let's get into how likely it is that Florida will get a damaging earthquake in the next 100 years. According to the study, the chance of a slight, or greater, damaging earthquake shaking in the next 100 years is 5% or less in most areas of Florida. As you get towards the panhandle of Florida, that chance increases to %5 to 25%. So, either way, it's not a high risk, but if you're in an area such as Tallahassee, that risk is higher. The states with the highest risk, according to the map, are mainly California and Alaska.

Of course, you can't really predict an earthquake. It's not like seeing rain clouds coming into your area. But, by the researchers investigating faults and past earthquakes, scientists are able to determine the likelihood of future earthquakes and their severity. So, it's useful information.