4 Biggest Storylines in the NFL Draft Entering the 1st Round

Tonight is the first round of the NFL Draft. There are plenty of storylines entering the 1st round, but what are the 4 biggest storylines in the NFL Draft. I'll get to those in due course. I have said for years now that the NFL Draft is the one event where every team and fan base feels they get better. Free Agency is great, but there are usually a handful of teams that end up losing more than they gain. Teams like the Cowboys and Dolphins come to mind from this offseason. But on draft night everyone thinks their guy is the next superstar. Just go look at how Jets fans reacted when they drafted Zach Wilson #2 overall in 2021. Here are the 4 biggest storylines in the NFL Draft entering the 1st round.

The top-10 will be dictated by the Chicago Bears. In addition to them likely taking Caleb Williams #1 overall, they also own the #9 pick in the first round. The Bears are widely expected to draft a quarterback with the 1st overall pick, which will tie the Colts (7) for the most quarterbacks drafted in the first round in the Common Draft Era (since 1967). The Bears are the only current franchise that’s never had a 4,000-yard passer in a season and the only franchise that hasn’t had a 30-Pass TD quarterback in a season.

The Bears are 1 of 8 teams that haven’t made the first overall pick in the Common Draft Era (since 1971). The last time the Bears held the #1 overall pick was in 1947 when they took running back Bob Fenimore.

Expect to see a lot of quarterbacks early in the draft. Quarterbacks are expected to be the first 3 picks of the draft for the 4th time in the Common Draft Era and 1st since 2021 (Trevor Lawrence – Zach Wilson – Trey Lance). Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels from LSU and UNC’s Drake Maye are both expected to be drafted high, with the Commanders (2nd pick) and Patriots (3rd pick) trading their primary 2023 starting quarterbacks this offseason (Sam Howell & Mac Jones).

Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy could also hear his name called early. He went 27-1 as a starting QB in his college career, the 3rd-best win percentage in FBS history (min. 25 starts).

Round 1 is expected to be dominated by offensive players. In addition to the up to 6 quarterbacks that could go in the 1st round, wide receivers and offensive tackles are specially deep in this year's class. The Common Draft Era record for offensive picks in the first round is 19 (done 3 times – 2009, 2004 and 1968), and there’s been only one year in the Common Draft Era in which 9 of the top 10 picks came from a single side of the ball (offense went 9-for-10 in 1969).

Wide receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State), Malik Nabers (LSU) and Rome Odunze (Washington) are all projected as high draft picks. The Common Draft Era record for the fewest picks needed for 3 wide receivers to be selected is 9, done twice (2017 – Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross and 2004 – Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams and Reggie Williams).

The reigning national champion Michigan Wolverines had 18 players invited to the Combine and could approach the most players selected from one school in a single year. Since the draft was capped at 7 rounds in 1994, the most players from a school is 15 by Georgia in 2022. The most Michigan players selected in any year in the Common Draft Era is 11 in 2017, a number that’s expected to be surpassed this year.

The NFL Draft is difficult to predict. But by looking at Mock Draft's we can see some of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers draft targets.

This offseason was a fork in the road moment for the Bucs. Franchise cornerstones Mike Evans and Antoine Winfield Jr. both could have left Tampa this offseason. But the team figured out a way to keep them both around and have enough money to resign quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Even though those are the high profile moves that will garner much of the attention from the national media, the team also made other significant moves.

They found their replacement for Shaw Barrett in Randy Gregory who played for Denver and the 49ers last season. They've brought in CB Bryce Hall from the Jets to compete for the CB2 role following the departure of Carlton Davis. They also beefed up their offensive line with 3 signings; Ben Bredeson, Justin Skule, and Sua Opeta. Opeta is penciled in as a starter right now with Bredeson a backup.

The Buccaneers are currently 26th in the 1st round. The Buccaneers hold 7 picks- 1 in the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 7th plus 2 picks in the 3rd round; pick number 89 and 92.

Looking at the current roster construction for the reigning NFC South champions, and there is not a clear position for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers draft targets. We will look at what different outlets have the Buccaneers taking in the 1st round. But there is not one position that is overwhelming.

It looks like Jason Licht and the Buccaneers are in a position where they can take the best player on the board or trade back if a team wants to get back into the 1st round.

There are some themes when looking at position groups that fit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers draft targets. Teams have figured out that you can't acquire enough talent on the offensive and defensive lines, and the Bucs are mocked to take their fair share of linemen.

Pro Football Focus mocked the Buccaneers taking pass rusher Jared Verse in the 1st round with their number 26 pick. PFF describes Verse falling to the Buccaneers as a dream scenario saying "There aren’t many better scenarios for the Buccaneers than somehow coming away with Jared Verse at Pick 26." The Buccaneers have invested heavily in their defensive line in recent memory. They've taken Calijah Kancey, Vita Vea, and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka in the 1st round since 2018. This pick makes perfect sense is Jason Licht has shown he loves taking play makers on the defensive front in the 1st round.

USA Today has the Buccaneers taking another pass rusher. Laiaty Latu out of UCLA is the reigning PAC-12 defensive player of the year and the Lombardi Award and Ted Hendricks Award for the nation's best defensive player. This seems to be the spot in the draft that pass rushers start to show the depth of this year's class. Remember that Jason Licht has taken a ton of defensive players in the 1st round since he took over as GM. And now that the division boasts Kirk Cousins, getting pressure on him should be a huge priority in Tampa.

The Buccaneers are not desperate for an offensive lineman. But if Mims is on the board at 26, this might be my favorite pick for them. This year's tackle class is one of the deeper one's in recent memory with up to 7 potentially taken in the 1st round. Coming out of Georgia leads me to believe that Mims is a ready made pro. Maybe it's Mims, or maybe it's another offensive linemen the Bucs target here, but I like the idea of going offensive line for a team that was middle of the pack in 2023.

Both The Ringer and Tankathon have mocked Barton to the Buccaneers. Barton is described as a good offensive lineman with good feet that allows him to play any of the interior offensive line spots. Some might see Duke and think "no thanks". But remember how good Duke was in 2023 under Mike Elko, who is now at Texas A&M. I like my offensive linemen to be smart and able to work on the fly. Barton should be able to do that with his academic background. Like Mims, an opportunity to get better in front of Baker is a great idea.