2023 Big 12 Media Days: Texas Longhorns enter as conference favorites in their Big 12 finale

The 2023 Big 12 Media Days are set for July 12-13 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

The conference will operate as a 14-team league for at least one season with the addition of BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. Meanwhile, the league’s two most storied programs, Oklahoma & Texas, enter their final season in the league before sailing off into the sunset for the SEC in 2024.

The Big 12 is the only Power 5 conference to crown three different champions over the last 3 seasons. During that stretch, 6 different teams have played in the Big 12 Championship game (Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech & West Virginia are the only four that have not).

Entering the season, Texas is the unanimous favorite to take home the title whether you prefer computer models (FPI), betting markets (Caesars Sportsbook) or media opinions (2023 Big 12 Media Preseason Poll).

Texas’ last conference title was in 2009. Its 13-year title drought is the longest in school history dating back to when it joined a conference in 1915 (original members of the Southwest Conference).

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) currently gives Texas a 54% chance to win the conference title, the best in the conference. The only FBS team with a higher chance to win its respective conference entering the season is Ohio State (71%).

According to FPI, there is a 33% chance that the two Big 12 defectors – Texas and Oklahoma – faceoff in the Big 12 title game and just an 8% chance that the two of them are both at home on December 2 getting an early jump on packing their bags for the SEC.

For the first time since winning their last Big 12 title in 2009, the Longhorns were selected to win the conference title by the Big 12 media.

Meanwhile, of the four incoming  teams, Cincinnati owns the best record over the last five seasons against other Power 5 programs.  One coach who is not happy however is Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy.

We will have lots more from all the coaches on Shemon and Sheppard today.  Below is a little preview of the entire  Conference complete with fun facts.  CFB is right around the corner kids!  LETS GO!

2023 FPI PRESEASON RANK: 5th
2022 POSTSEASON: Lost to Washington in Alamo Bowl, 27-20
2022 FINAL AP RANK: 25th

Steve Sarkisian enters his third season on the Forty Acres with a 13-12 record. Of the Longhorns’ 12 losses, 10 have been by one possession, including all 5 of last season’s losses (T-most in a single season for Texas in the AP Poll era). The only FBS teams with more one-possession losses over the last two seasons are Nebraska (13) and Iowa State (11).

Quinn Ewers was named the starting QB by Steve Sarkisian after spring practice, putting the Arch Manning questions to bed… for now. Ewers displayed flashes of stardom in his 10 starts last season, though the first four starts were a bit flashier than the final six.

2023 FPI PRESEASON RANK: 11th
2022 POSTSEASON: Lost to Florida State in Cheez-It Bowl, 35-32
2022 FINAL AP RANK: NR

Oklahoma enters its last season in the Big 12, a conference it has dominated. The Sooners have won 14 Big 12 titles, just one fewer than the combined total of all other Big 12 schools – old and new (including years the title was split). No other team has won more than three Big 12 titles in the conference’s history.

In Brent Venables’ first season, Oklahoma finished with its first losing season since 1998, the year before Bob Stoops (HC) and Venables (DC) arrived in Norman. That snapped the Sooners’ streak of 23 straight seasons without a losing record, which was the 2nd-longest active streak in the FBS (Boise State, 25).

2023 FPI PRESEASON RANK: 17th
2022 POSTSEASON: Won Fiesta Bowl vs Michigan, 51-45 : Lost in National Championship vs Georgia, 65-7

2022 FINAL AP RANK: 2nd

Sonny Dykes enters his second year at TCU after becoming the first Big 12 coach to start the year 12-0 in his first season at a program. That start culminated into a run to the national title game for TCU, becoming the first Big 12 school to win a College Football Playoff game. Repeating that magical run will be a challenge though since only 10starters return from that team.

The Horned Frog offense took the biggest hit, losing 8 starters along with other key contributors. They return just 18% of their total offensive yards gained in 2022. They also had to replace offensive coordinator Garrett Riley (2022 Broyles Award winner) after he left for Clemson, hiring Kendall Briles from Arkansas to fill the vacancy.

2023 FPI PRESEASON RANK: 22nd
2022 POSTSEASON: Won Texas Bowl vs Ole Miss, 42-25

2022 FINAL AP RANK: NR

In Joey McGuire’s first season he led Texas Tech to an 8-5 record, the Red Raider’s most wins since 2013 (Kliff Kingsbury’s first season). Getting to the 8-win mark wasn’t easy though. Texas Tech became the first Big 12 teamto win 3 overtime games in a single season.

With a full year under his belt and plenty of returning pieces, offensive coordinator Zach Kittley will try to build onto his offense designed to wear teams down with volume. In 2022, Texas Tech led the nation in plays per game with 84.2, which was nearly 7 more plays than the 2nd-closest team (SMU, 77.3).

2023 FPI PRESEASON RANK: 23rd
2022 POSTSEASON: Lost in Armed Forces Bowl to Air Force, 30-15
2022 FINAL AP RANK: NR

Baylor started 6-3 last season before dropping its final 4 games to finish with a 6-7 record. They were the first defending Big 12 champion since 2010 Texas to finish with a losing record the following season.

QB Blake Shapen returns after an up-and-down season in his first full year as the starter. He finished with a 57 QBR, which was 9th among the 11 qualifying Big 12 QBs. In Baylor’s final five games of the season, Shapen finished with a QBR under 30 in three of those.

2023 FPI PRESEASON RANK: 26th
2022 POSTSEASON: Lost in Military Bowl vs Duke, 30-13
2022 FINAL AP RANK: NR

The Knights’ fortunes in their maiden voyage into the Big 12 may rest on the right arm – and the legs – of QB John Rhys Plumlee. The Ole Miss transfer piled up 862 rush yards a year ago – only LSU’s Jayden Daniels had more among FBS QBs. He led all American Athletic Conference QBs with 11 rush TD.

The Knights rushed for 228 yards per game last season, the 9th-most in FBS. UCF was the only FBS team last season with 3 players to rush for 750+ yards. Isaiah Bowser graduated, but RB R.J. Harvey returns after rushing for 796 yards and 5 TD a year ago.

2023 FPI PRESEASON RANK: 27th
2022 POSTSEASON: Lost in Sugar Bowl vs Alabama, 45-20
FINAL 2022 AP RANK: 14th

K-State was the only school to knock off TCU prior to the College Football Playoff last season when it edged the Horned Frogs in the Big 12 title game. Winning is nothing new to the Wildcats under Klieman, though. Kansas State’s 30 wins under the former North Dakota State coach are the 4th-most in the Big 12 over that span (Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma State 35, Baylor 31).

Kansas State has been steady under 5th-year coach Chris Klieman, whom the school has signed through the 2030 season at an average annual salary well north of $5 million.

Job 1 for Klieman – replace the production of RB Deuce Vaughn and QB Adrian Martinez. Vaughn was responsible for 33% of the Wildcats’ scrimmage yards a year ago, the 9th-highest rate by any FBS player last season.

2023 FPI PRESEASON RANK: 38th
2022 POSTSEASON: Lost in Guarantee Rate Bowl vs Wisconsin, 24-17
2022 FINAL AP RANK: NR

Last season Oklahoma State started 5-0 but lost 6 of its last 8 games. That was the worst 8-game stretch in a season for the Cowboys under Mike Gundy since his first season in 2005 when they went 1-7 in the last 8 games to finish 4-7, the only losing season in his tenure.

Under Gundy, Oklahoma State’s offense has typically been complimented by an explosive rushing attack but last season the Cowboys struggled, averaging 125.6 rush YPG (97th in FBS), their worst mark since 2001. Their leading rusher, Dominic Richardson had just 543 yards (transferred to Baylor).

2023 FPI PRESEASON RANK: 43rd
2022 POSTSEASON: None
2022 FINAL AP RANK: NR

The Cyclones missed a pair of stars on offense a year ago … and it showed. QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall moved on to the NFL, and Iowa State moved to the Big 12 basement, offensively. ISU’s 20.2 PPG ranked 114th in FBS. The Cyclones scored a TD on only 20% of their offensive drives, which ranked 104th in the FBS.

Iowa State was too predictable, given how poorly it ran the ball. The Cyclones were 1 of 8 FBS teams a year ago without a 450-yard rusher, joining the likes of Arkansas State, Boston College, Colorado, Rutgers, San Diego State, Virginia and Virginia Tech. That was particularly problematic, given the Cyclones were breaking in a new QB in Hunter Dekkers.

2023 FPI PRESEASON RANK: 48th
2022 POSTSEASON: Lost in Fenway Bowl vs Louisville, 24-7
FINAL 2022 AP RANK: NR

No Group of 5 school is better suited to move to a Power 5 conference than Cincinnati. UC is the only school thus far to reach the College Football Playoff from the Group of 5 ranks, but now the Bearcats are ready for the big time.

Cincinnati is built for this. No Group of 5 school had a better record over the last 5 seasons than the Bearcats. UC was the only Group of 5 school with 50 wins over that span.  Cincinnati’s 7 wins over Power 5 schools over the last 5 seasons were the most among Group of 5 schools over that span.

2023 FPI PRESEASON RANK: 54th
2022 POSTSEASON: Won Independence Bowl vs Louisiana, 23-16
FINAL 2022 AP RANK: NR

For the second time in his coaching career Dana Holgorsen pilots a program making the jump to the Big 12 after doing the same for West Virginia in 2012 (from the Big East).

Houston may have the most to prove among the four new teams. If we include their fellow incoming peers, the Cougars own a 2-12 record against 2023 Power 5 programs over the last 5 seasons (counting games vs BYU, Cincinnati & BYU). They are 0-6 against BYU, Cincinnati and UCF during that stretch, losing each of those games by double-digits.

2023 FPI PRESEASON RANK: 57th
2022 POSTSEASON: None
FINAL 2022 AP RANK: NR

Can the Mountaineers turn the proverbial corner in their 4th season under head coach Neal Brown? WVU has yet to post a 7-win season under Brown, and the Mountaineers took a step back a year ago. West Virginia went 5-7 overall and 3-6 in league play while failing to reach a bowl game.

With QB JT Daniels having transferred to Rice, it leaves Garrett Greene or Nicco Marchiol as the likely candidates to start at QB in the season opener at Penn State. Greene posted a solid Total QBR of 76 in 9 games (2 starts) last season, though he only completed 55% of his passes (43 of 78) and tossed 3 interceptions.