WACO, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 19: Quarterback Max Duggan #15 of the TCU Horned Frogs walks off the field after the Horned Frogs beat the Baylor Bears 29-28 at McLane Stadium on November 19, 2022 in Waco, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, USC, and Clemson Are All Possible CFP Teams With 1 Loss.  LSU with 2 losses also alive!

Last week I wrote about possible scenario’s for one loss teams in the CFP race.

Tennessee’s loss shook up the CFP picture quite a bit.

Per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Vols’ odds of reaching the final four plummeted from 60% to 9% with the loss, and TCU (up 21 percentage points), Michigan (10 percentage points), USC (6), Clemson (6), Ohio State (6) and LSU (3) all benefited. scenarios for one loss teams in the CFP.

Lets Look At Some The Possible CFP Scenarios, Especially that Ohio State – Michigan Game

Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and TCU are all in if they win out (but either Michigan or Ohio State will lose to the other this coming weekend).  If the Michigan-Ohio State game is very close it’s still possible that both could still be ranked in the top 4 a week from today when all the smoke clears.

TCU’s lack of dominance failed to impress the committee, and the Horned Frogs started out seventh behind a one-loss Alabama. That doesn’t say positive things about TCU’s chances of getting in with a loss.

LSU has two losses.  Here’s how they could still get in.  Despite two losses, LSU was up to sixth in last week’s rankings and will get a shot at No. 1 Georgia in the SEC championship game.  If they beat the Bulldogs and either Michigan or Ohio State lose big and USC or TCU lose one more game, the Tigers would have a great shot to get in.

USC or Clemson–Who Has The Edge?

USC was ahead of Clemson in the “potential one-loss conference champion” pecking order, and the Trojans not only scored a ranked win over UCLA this week but could also grab two more in the coming weeks against Notre Dame on Saturday and a Pac-12 championship game competitor to be named later.

Clemson can score only one more ranked win, against North Carolina in the ACC championship game. That likely means USC will remain ahead of the Tigers if both teams win out.  However, if the committee decides to rank South Carolina this week, as I did(I have them in at #25) that would give Clemson another chance at beating a ranked team and could possibly put them ahead of the Trojans.

If you don’t have another popsicle headache now, trust me you will by late Saturday night.  I will be rooting for a 3 point or less win by either Michigan or Ohio State plus victories by USC over Notre Dame and LSU over Texas A/M.  This would absolutely further my claim to chaos and would infuriate Craig Shemon to no end.

 

 

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    Statement Saturday Became Survival Saturday Highlight Week 12 Plus The Real Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings

    Statement Saturday became Survival Saturday highlight Week 12 plus The Real Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings.

    Top-4 teams In The College Football Playoff Rankings Win.  Barely

    Well, well, well.  Last week I and others didn’t believe that Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan or TCU, the top 4 CFP teams, would struggle this past Saturday.  They all played in the dreaded “trap” game and all survived by the skin of their teeth.  Meanwhile, the Tennessee Vols not only lost badly to South Carolina, 63-38, they lost their star quarterback Hendon Hooker.  He left in the fourth quarter with a leg injury, falling and fumbling without being hit and is done for the year.

    USC Trojans On The Verge Of Causing Some Serious Chaos!

    Caleb Williams bolstered Southern California’s push for a possible spot in the College Football Playoff with the biggest game of his career against the Trojans’ archrival UCLA.  Williams had 503 yards of total offense and accounted for three touchdowns, and the seventh-ranked Trojans beat No. 16 UCLA 48-45 on Saturday night to reach the Pac-12 championship game.

    The Trojans (10-1, 8-1) got their first win of the season over a ranked team. They will wait to see who their opponent will be on Dec. 2 in Las Vegas for the conference crown.  The Trojans will host #13 Notre Dame on Saturday.

    Statement Saturday: Why My Top 4 Picks Haven’t Changed

    Well, why would they?  Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and TCU didn’t blow out their respective opponents.  There is no reason at all that Michigan should jump Ohio State or Ohio State jumping to number one over Georgia or TCU jumping over Michigan and Ohio State.  All the top 4 teams were expected to win quite easily on Saturday.  It didn’t happen.  And even though the CFP committee never says on the record that “blowouts” matter, the fact is they do.  Ohio State, Michigan and TCU had a chance to move up in my poll this week had they won in impressive fashion but they didn’t and they shouldn’t.

    My Real Top 25 College Football Rankings:

     

    • 25. South Carolina

    • 24. UTSA

    • 23. Oregon State

    • 22. Coastal Carolina

    • 21. North Carolina

    • 20. Cincinnati

    • 19. Mississippi

    • 18. Tulane

    • 17. UCLA

    • 16. Florida State

    • 15. Utah

    • 14. Kansas State

    • 13. Notre Dame

    • 12. Washington

    • 11. Tennessee

    • 10. Penn State

    • 9. Oregon

    • 8. Alabama

    • 7. Clemson

    • 6. LSU

    • 5. USC

    • 4. TCU

      TCU

      WACO, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 19: Quarterback Max Duggan #15 of the TCU Horned Frogs walks off the field after the Horned Frogs beat the Baylor Bears 29-28 at McLane Stadium on November 19, 2022 in Waco, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

    • 3. Michigan

       

    • 2. Ohio State

    • 1. Georgia