How Michigan, Ohio State, Tennessee and Clemson can make it to The College Football Playoff with one loss.
Where things stand with the College Football Playoff
Following its win against Texas, TCU has a 32% chance to reach the College Football Playoff according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and Tennessee are all above 50%, while Clemson is just behind TCU. Alabama is at 15% following its win against Ole Miss.
With its win, TCU now has the best resume in the nation according to ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, just ahead of Georgia. The average Top-25 team would have less than a 10% chance to go 10-0 against either the Horned Frogs’ or Bulldogs’ schedules.
As things currently stand, what is the most likely playoff combination regardless of seeding? That is Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Tennessee, which has a 22% chance of occurring according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. There’s a 34% chance that all four teams are from the Big Ten and SEC.
Running some scenarios with the Allstate Playoff Predictor
Let’s have a little fun with a couple scenarios. Most of you know, I want as much chaos as possible while Craig Shemon constantly loves to hear himself say: “These games will work themselves out”. Possibly, but this year might be different. Here’s why:
Georgia, Ohio State and TCU all win out. They would all be conference champions and would be in the College Football Playoff.
Tennessee, Clemson and Michigan all finish with 1 loss. The Tigers would have a conference championship, while Tennessee would have lost to Georgia and Michigan would have lost to Ohio State.
This has a 3.6% chance of happening.
In this scenario, this is how the chances to make the College Football Playoff look:
Ohio State 99%
Georgia 99%
TCU 85%
Tennessee 40%
Michigan 36% Clemson 32%
Now let’s flip with Ohio State-Michigan result
Georgia, Michigan and TCU all win out. They would all be conference champions and would be in the College Football Playoff.
Tennessee, Clemson and Ohio State all finish with 1 loss. The Tigers would have a conference championship, while Tennessee would have lost to Georgia and Ohio State would have lost to Michigan.
This has a 1.5% chance of happening.
In this scenario, this is how the chances to make the College Football Playoff look:
Georgia 98%
Michigan 97%
TCU 86%
Ohio State 47%
Tennessee 33%
Clemson 30%
There are a few questions that could alter this outlook if either scenario occurs:
- What is the score margin between Ohio State and Michigan?
- Does Clemson make a statement in the ACC championship game vs North Carolina?
- Would the committee want to see Georgia-Tennessee in the 1 vs 4 matchup if the Bulldogs capture the top seed?
- Would the committee want to see Ohio State-Michigan in the 1 vs 4 matchup if the Buckeyes (or Wolverines) capture the top seed?
Do you have a popsicle headache yet? I know Craig does which is what I was aiming for! This is what makes college football so much fun and why an expansion to 12 teams is going to happen sooner rather than later. Again, sorry Craig!
