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Invest 98L Could Be A Real Problem For Southwest Florida Next Week

By Joe Winner

Invest 98L isn’t a problem -yet. But it is something we definitely need to be watching here in Southwest Florida.

The big news going on right now is Hurricane Fiona. As of this morning’s update, it’s a Category 4 Hurricane with sustained winds of 130 mph. The truth is, Hurricane Fiona and Tropical Storm Gaston pose no threat to us here in Florida. It’s the next one we’re watching. Here’s the official report from NOAA:

“A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity a couple hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. The system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward Islands today and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty winds are affecting these islands. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.”

Invest 98L is Likely To Become A Strong Storm

It’s still too far out to make determinations, but we are definitely in the concern phase for the possibility of something mid next week. Last year’s season was nothing, so it’s easy to get complacent. Here’s our Hurricane Guide for you to look over. Don’t start putting up your shutters or filling up gas cans just yet. We’re not at that point.

  • This morning's model runs

    The black line is the ‘mean’ or average. Currently, that’s us.

  • Here's what the radar would look like if the model runs come true

    So what do we know about projected strength? The number over the L is millibars. And there’s a chart for that.

  • Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

    Category Wind speed Storm surge (height above normal) Atmospheric pressure (millibars) Damage
    1 74–95 mph
    (119–153 kph)    		 4–5 ft
    (1.2–1.5 m)    		 >979 Minimal: No real damage to buildings. Damage to unanchored mobile homes. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Some coastal flooding and minor pier damage.
    Examples: Cindy and Ophelia (2005)
    2 96–110 mph
    (154–177 kph)    		 6–8 ft
    (1.8–2.4 m)    		 965–979 Moderate: Some damage to building roofs, doors, and windows. Considerable damage to mobile homes. Damage to piers from flooding. Small craft in unprotected moorings may break their moorings. Some trees blown down. Evacuation of some shoreline residences and low-lying areas required.
    Example: The Perfect Storm (1991), Hurricane Isabel (2003)
    3 111–130 mph
    (178–209 kph)    		 9–12 ft
    (3–4 m)    		 945–964 Extensive: Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings. Large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly built signs destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain may be flooded well inland. Evacuation of low-lying residences within several blocks of the shoreline may be required.
    Examples: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma (2005)
    4 131–155 mph
    (210–249 kph)    		 13–18 ft
    (4–5.5 m)    		 920–944 Extreme: More extensive failure on non-bearing, exterior walls with some complete roof structure failure on small residences. Major erosion of beach areas. Terrain may be flooded well inland. Massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 mi (10 km) may be required.
    Example: Galveston Hurricane of 1900
    5 >155 mph
    (249 kph)    		 >18 ft
    (5.5 m)    		 <920 Catastrophic: Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Flooding causes major damage to lower floors of all structures near the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5 to10 mi (8 to 16 km) of the shoreline may be required.
    Example: Andrew (1992)

  • Can someone just explain this in an easy to understand way?

    This guy does an amazing job.

  • What to do now?

    Nothing, really. The storm is still developing and there’s a lot of factors at play. Especially that cold front that Mike talks about in the video. I actually began my prep last night by buying dog food and vodka. Now we just wait to see what happens.

  • Here's our guide, just in case

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