The Houston Texans 2022 outlook might not have the playoffs, or even a winning record. But the franchise knows where it's headed now. Moving on from Deshaun Watson, settling with all 30 of his accusers, and hiring Lovie Smith to be their next head coach. Much like divisional foe Jacksonville, the Texans were in need of a grown up. Not trying to take a shot at David Culley, but he was never a long term answer. Pep Hamilton as the Offensive Coordinator is a great hire, and should provide some stability to that side of the ball.
Looking at the team's construction from 2021 to 2022, and the Texans have a ton of young players. Unfortunately their rookie receiver, John Metchie III, has been diagnosed with Leukemia and is expected to miss the season. They will still be leaning heavily on their top-3 draft picks. Derek Stingley Jr's production tailed off his final 2 seasons at LSU, but his 2019 Freshman season was spectacular. They also spent their 3rd pick on Safety Jalen Pitre in an attempt to sure up the secondary. Houston spent their second 1st round pick on versatile offensive lineman Kenyon Green out of Texas A&M. It looks like they brought in some big time talent in the draft, but there is no doubt the Metchie news is a shot for the Texans.
In 2021 the Texans might fit the rare spot where a 4 win team might have exceeded expectations. Davis Mills was not terrible in his rookie season. In throwing to a really bad receiving corps, Mills still managed 2,264 yards, 16 TDs, and 10 INTs. Those numbers were in 13 games. Davis Mills had the highest QBR of any rookie quarterback last season. Their running game was worst in the league last season averaging just 83.6 yards per game. There is room for improvement on the offensive side of the ball, but Davis Mills can show he's an NFL quarterback that can lead the Texans out of obscurity. Here's the Houston Texans 2022 Outlook.
Schedule Breakdown
9/11 vs. Indianapolis Colts
9/18 @ Denver Broncos
9/25 @ Chicago Bears
10/2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
10/9 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
10/16- BYE
10/23 @ Las Vegas Raiders
10/30 vs. Tennessee Titans
11/3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Thursday Night Football)
11/13 @ New York Giants
11/20 vs. Washington Commanders
11/27 @ Miami Dolphins
12/4 vs. Cleveland Browns
12/11 @ Dallas Cowboys
12/18 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
12/24 @ Tennessee Titans
1/1 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
1/8 @ Indianapolis Colts
The NFL didn't do the Texans any favors with this schedule. In their first 5 games the 2 winnable games are both on the road. The Bears are the second of back-to-back road games, never an easy spot, and the Jags on the road are going into a bye week. After the bye it's very difficult. At Vegas and back-to-back home games against the Titans and Eagles- both playoff teams from last year. The next 3 games is the softest spot of the schedule. At the Giants, home for the Commanders, and on the road in Miami. However, the Giants and Dolphins are both coming off their bye weeks. Over the final 6 games of the season, Jacksonville at home is the only favorable spot. Every other team (Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Tennessee, and Indianapolis) should all be in the playoff hunt.
Prediction: 3-14 (@ Chicago, vs. Washington, and vs. Jacksonville)
Key Additions
CB Steven Nelson (Philadelphia); 2-year/$9 million)
G A.J. Cann (Jacksonville): 2-year/$8.5 million
DE Mario Addison (Buffalo): 2-year/$7.7 million)
Fantasy Players
Like a lot of teams drafting in the top-5, there aren't a ton of options for fantasy players. If they had studs up and down the roster they wouldn't have had 4 wins last season. Brandin Cooks gets 1,000 yards as long as he's on the field. Cooks put up 1,037 yards and 90 receptions in 16 games last season. If you can get Cooks as your WR3, then you're in a good spot. As mentioned earlier, the running game was atrocious last season. It appears that none of the backs on the roster are worth rostering. Marlon Mack, Rex Burkhead, and Dameon Pierce look like a nice 3-headed attach on the field, but unless one of those guys takes the job or two get hurt, stay away from this backfield.
Best Case Scenario
Best case for the Houston Texans isn't so much measured in wins and losses, but how many pieces they have in place for the future when the season ends. The division seems like a long shot, and the playoffs might be closer, but it's not a realistic thought for a talent deprived team in the AFC. Last season the Texans did pull off a couple of major upsets- including wins over the Chargers and the Titans. The Texans have some winnable games early on with the Bears and Jags on the road. If they cant win those plus steal a few more road games like the Giants and Dolphins, plus win home games against Washington and take the week 17 game against the Jags, this could be a 5 win team. In fact, I'll say they go 1-3 against the Titans and Colts.
Best Case: 7-10 (Jags (x2), Bears, Giants, Commanders, Dolphins, Titans)
