Fantasy Football drafts are just around the corner, and we want to help you win your league this season. The traditional Fantasy football QB ranking of numbering 1-20 is outdated and doesn’t paint the full picture. What if the drop off from 9 to 10 is 50 points? They shouldn’t be drafted back to back in that scenario. Russell Wilson is in a new location, but what does that mean for his fantasy outlook? Will the change in OC in Buffalo help or hurt Josh Allen? Can Joe Burrow build on his postseason success from last year? All that and more will be answered in our fantasy football QB rankings by tier.
2 Philosophies
There are 2 philosophies when drafting quarterbacks. 1) Go get your stud early. This is rarely the philosophy I deploy. Unless a guy like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes are available in the 4th or 5th round, I’ll let someone else take that player. I prefer to deploy the 2 QB system with each player fitting into a different category. Those categories are proven vet that is steady, and a young player with huge upside. Think about the young QB’s who have burst onto the scene over the last 5 years. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow. young guys are breaking into the league and putting up huge number. Usually in year 2 or 3.
2021 Numbers
For some context, the top 10 scoring Quarterbacks from 2021 were Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, Jalen hurts, and Kyler Murray. Allen led the way with 417 points on the year, while Murray snuck in the top 10 with 310 points. That might seem like a big drop off in production, but it’s only 2 points per game (Murray only played in 14 games).
Tier 1
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1. Josh Allen
2. Justin Herbert
3. Patrick MahomesI think all of these guys will have a majority of their offenses placed on their shoulders. I put Herbert ahead of Mahomes because of the weapons the teams have surrounding the quarterback. I would target Josh in the early 3rd round with the other 2 guys in the 4th.
Tier 2
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4. Joe Burrow
5. Lamar Jackson
I should have called this “tier 1.5”. I would not be surprised if either one of these guys finish the season as the league’s to scoring QB in 2022. Burrow should go somewhere around the end of the 4th or beginning of the 5th. Target Lamar at the end of the 5th or beginning of the 6th round.
Tier 3
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6. Tom Brady
7. Kyler Murray
8. Russell Wilson
Tom Brady led the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns in 2021. We all need to stop thinking some sort of cliff is coming for Brady. It just isn’t. he’s going to continue to put up gaudy numbers. When healthy, Kyler is one of the premier fantasy QB’s. If you take him, you’ll need a solid backup because it’s unrealistic to expect him to stay healthy for 17 games. Russ is the big question mark this season. He starts hot every year, then tails off. Maybe with an offensive minded coach, Russ will get to cook for all 17 games. I would target all of these guys in the late 7th/early 8th.
Tier 4
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9. Jalen Hurts
10. Derek Carr
11. Dak Prescott
12. Aaron RodgersJalen Hurts brings those added ground yards and the potential for rushing touchdowns every week. Hurts should be targeted in the late 8th/early 9th round. I would also target Derek Carr in this same spots. Carr threw for over 4,800 yards and added one of the best receivers in the game. Dak 2 of his top 3 receivers, but should still put up good numbers. Similar spot with Rodgers losing Adams to Vegas. He should be fin though.
Tier 5
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13. Matthew Stafford
14. Kirk Cousins
15. Matt RyanThese guys are all safe options, and if you don’t get one of those top 3 tier guys, you can use these guys in a rotation. Stafford would be higher if not for the elbow injury. I could just see a few games this season where the Rams get up big and try to preserve the arm. Cousins is very efficient in a good offense. See similar numbers from last year. I think Matt Ryan will be reinvigorated now that he’s back on a contender, and Michael Pittman should be a big beneficiary of that.
Tier 6
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16. Trey Lance
17. Tua Tagovailoa
18. Jameis Winston
19. Trevor Lawrence
20. Justin FieldsThese are all guys who have some serious upside. Trey Lance in the Kyle Shanahan offense could be explosive. Jimmy G was solid, but Lance brings the athleticism where his legs can be utilized more. Tua has 2 of the most explosive weapons on the outside in the league, so he should have a few games where opposing secondary’s simply can’t match what the Dolphins bring to the field. Jameis has put up numbers, but needs to do it consistently. Lawrence and Fields will be the focal points of their offenses, and could be used when going up against the bottom half of the league defenses. It also doesn’t hurt that they’ll be trailing often and have to chuck the ball around to get back in games.
