MIAMI, FLORIDA – MARCH 27: Nick Fortes #4 of the Miami Marlins reacts after hitting a triple against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the ninth inning of their Opening Day game at loanDepot park on March 27, 2025 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)
Miami broke a long losing streak against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday. But it wasn't easy. The Miami Marlins produced rallies in the final two innings to come from behind and prevail 5-4, after being held to just three hits in five-plus innings by Pittsburgh's starting P Paul Skenes. The Pirates and the Marlins will do it again at 7:10 p.m. on Friday evening, with another pitcher's wind forecast to blow straight at home plate.
Sportsbooks solidly favor Pittsburgh to win Friday's encore. The Pirates' (-130) moneyline odds reflect a ball club that's expected to bounce back and even the series in Miami. Buccos fans who watched their bullpen spring leaks on Thursday would protest that a risky betting pick is not a good fit for a careless team.
Can the Pirates grab a win before falling 0-2? Or will it take a trip home to produce a spark?
Spread
- Pirates (-1.5) (+120)
- Marlins (+1.5) (-143)
Moneyline
- Pirates (-146)
- Marlins (+123)
Total
- Over 8(-114)
- Under 8 (-106)
*The above data was collected on March 28, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh is 8-1 in the last nine games against Miami.
- Pittsburgh is 4-8 in the Pirates' last 12 games on the road.
- The total has gone over in all of Pittsburgh's last five games at Miami.
- The total has gone over in five of Miami's last six games.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Injury Reports
Pittsburgh Pirates
- First baseman Spencer Horwitz is on the 10-Day IL following right wrist surgery.
Miami Marlins
- Relief pitcher Ryan Weathers is day-to-day with a left forearm injury.
- Relief pitcher Declan Cronin is day-to-day with left hip discomfort.
- Second Baseman Connor Norby is on the 10-Day IL with a strained left oblique
- Left Fielder Jesus Sanchez is on the 10-day IL with a strained left oblique.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Predictions & Picks
Pittsburgh can feel good about Friday's pitching duel. Probable visiting P Mitch Keller is seasoned enough to handle a road game in a steady seaside wind. Miami's pitching rotation is already makeshift enough that the Marlins are planning to start Connor Gillispie, a hurler with almost no Major League experience.
Gillispie has garnered hype after a good preseason. "The 27-year-old Gillispie was excellent in 12 Grapefruit League innings ... sporting a 0.75 ERA with six K's and three walks," reports Justin Morris of MLB.com. Such hype begs the question of whether Gillispie would have stuck in an MLB pitching stable by now if his Grapefruit League tactics were so effective against Major League sluggers.
A good contact-hitting team can attack minor-league pitching and earn enough base hits to win a game without many home runs. The Pirates showed solid plate discipline against Sandy Alcántara in game one of the series. More patient batting on Friday should lead to a Pittsburgh win and a score on that Pirates moneyline.
