ATLANTA, GEORGIA – MARCH 27: Matthew Murrell #11 of the Ole Miss Rebels warms up during a practice session ahead of the Sweet Sixteen in the South Regional of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament at State Farm Arena on March 27, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
Ole Miss has never made it past the Sweet 16 — but that could all change Friday night in Atlanta if they upset the No. 2 seed Michigan State. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:09 p.m. ET.
The No. 6 seed Ole Miss (24-11) secured their spot in the Sweet 16 by taking down No. 3 seed Iowa State. After trailing early, the Rebels seized the lead midway through the first half and dominated the remainder of the game, leading by as many as 26 points in the second half. Five players scored in double digits, with Sean Pedulla leading the team with 20 points and eight assists.
Michigan State (29-6) advanced by defeating No. 15 seed Bryant and No. 10 seed New Mexico. The Spartans had to overcome a 10-point deficit in the first half against the latter to secure the 71-63 second-round victory. Jaden Akins led the team with 16 points, while Tre Holloman contributed 14 points.
The winner of the matchup will advance to the Elite Eight to face the winner of the game between No. 1 seed Auburn Tigers and No. 5 seed Michigan Wolverines.
Spread
- Ole Miss +3.5 (-110)
- Michigan State -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Ole Miss +145
- Michigan State -173
Total
- OVER 144.5 (-108)
- UNDER 144.5 (-115)
*The above data was collected on March 28, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Ole Miss vs. Michigan State Betting Trends
- Ole Miss is 2-0 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament this year and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Michigan State is 2-0 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The two teams average a combined 12.1 more points per game (155.6) than this matchup's TOTAL of 142.5.
- Michigan State is 23-11-1 against the spread this season, while Ole Miss is 18-17-0..
- Ole Miss has hit the OVER in six of their last eight games, while Michigan State has hit the UNDER in five of their last six.
- Michigan State has gone 10-1 straight up in their last 11 games; the Spartans have a 10-3 record against SEC opponents.
Ole Miss vs. Michigan State Injury Reports
Ole Miss
- None
Michigan State
- None
Ole Miss vs. Michigan State Predictions and Picks
"The Spartans have limited opponents to an NCAA-leading 27.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc, and while the deep ball has not been a major weapon for Ole Miss this year, they are 19-of-39 from beyond the arc in their two NCAA tournament wins. That is a big reason they are in the Sweet 16, and taking away that newfound weapon will be a major key to success for Michigan State. Rebounding is a major weakness for the Rebels, and a quick look at the team rebounding margin leaderboard reveals a troubling disparity between Michigan State (+9.4, 2nd in NCAA) and Ole Miss (-4.3, 337th in NCAA) in that department. The Rebels have to find a way to bridge that gap to win this game." — Joel Reuter, Bleacher Report
"Michigan State withstood a tough test against New Mexico in the second round and will have to earn everything again against Chris Beard and Ole Miss. Neither team has a noticeable advantage, thanks to similarly sized lineups and comparable numbers in nearly every major category. Beard and Tom Izzo are two of the best coaches remaining in the NCAA Tournament. So, expect a tight chess match Friday with the analytics giving the higher seed a slight nod." — Grant Hughes, 247Sports
"The Rebels are one of the few teams remaining in the field that can realistically match up with Tom Izzo's Spartans from a toughness and physicality standpoint. Even if there's a tight whistle, as was the case with Michigan State's second-round win over New Mexico, Ole Miss has solid depth, with six players averaging double figures. For all his baggage, Chris Beard is one of the best coaches in the sport and like he did at Texas Tech, he'll guide the Rebels to the Elite Eight in his second season on the job." — Craig Meyer, USA Today
