MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – MARCH 23: Koby Brea #4 of the Kentucky Wildcats reacts during the second half against the Illinois Fighting Illini in the second round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Fiserv Forum on March 23, 2025 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
After losing to Kentucky twice in the regular season, No. 2 seed Tennessee hopes the third time is the charm when the two teams face off in a loaded Sweet 16 matchup Friday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Tipoff is slated for 7:39 p.m. ET.
The No. 3 seed Kentucky (24-11), appearing in the NCAA Tournament's second weekend for the first time since 2019, secured their spot in the Sweet 16 with wins over No. 14 seed Troy and No. 6 seed Illinois.
Tennessee advanced by defeating No. 15 seed Wofford and No. 7 seed UCLA to reach the Sweet 16 for the third consecutive season.
Kentucky's defense will focus on containing Tennessee's leading scorer Chaz Lanier yet again, as they did in their previous matchups by holding him to 12.5 points per game on 17.6% shooting from beyond the arc.
The Vols' defense, meanwhile, ranks third nationally in three-point percentage defense and holds opponents to 28.7% from deep — but the Wildcats have been blisteringly effective from three-point range, shooting 50% in each of their two games against the Volunteers this season.
Kentucky secured a 78-73 victory in Knoxville in late January behind Brea's 18 points. In the rematch two weeks later in Lexington, Kentucky again prevailed 82-76, marking their program-record seventh win against a top-15 AP-ranked team.
Spread
- Kentucky +4.5 (-110)
- Tennessee -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Kentucky +167
- Tennessee -203
Total
- OVER 144.5 (-110)
- UNDER 144.5 (-110)
*The above data was collected on March 28, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Betting Trends
- Kentucky has won seven of the 12 games they have played as underdogs this season.
- Tennessee has won 23 of the 27 games they have played as the moneyline favorite this year.
- Tennessee is 18-17-0 against the spread this season, while Kentucky is 18-15-1.
- Kentucky is 5-1 against the spread and straight up in their last six games against Tennessee.
- Tennessee has won all 11 games they have played as moneyline favorites with odds of -397 or shorter.
- Tennessee and Kentucky combine to average 15.1 more points than the TOTAL of 144.5.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Injury Reports
Kentucky
- Jaxson Robinson, G - Out (undisclosed)
- Kerr Kriisa, G - Out (foot)
Tennessee
- J.P. Estrella, F - Out (foot)
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Predictions and Picks
"Mark Pope's Wildcats have been a resilient bunch all season, stacking up Quadrant One wins despite dealing with injuries to key players. They went 2-0 against Tennessee in the regular season, one of which came without dynamic scorer Jaxson Robinson, who's out for the season. They'll continue their winning ways against the Volunteers and earn a spot in the Elite Eight." — Craig Meyer, USA Today
"The Volunteers lost twice to Kentucky during the regular season, and perimeter defense was their undoing. They allowed the Wildcats to shoot 12-of-24 from three-point range in each of those earlier meetings, and while Kentucky is a solid shooting team, those performances are outliers rather than par for the course. It is extremely difficult to beat a team three times in the same season, and the Volunteers figure to make defending the deep ball a priority, so the Wildcats will need to find other ways to attack a Tennessee defense that ranks No. 3 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric. Expecting what has worked twice to work a third time will be a recipe for disaster." - Joel Reuter, Bleacher Report
"Is the third time the charm? Kentucky is one of the few teams to have Tennessee's number this season, taking down the Volunteers twice in SEC play. The Wildcats shot exactly 12-of-24 from 3-point range in each of the first two matchups against the Volunteers, well above their season average of 37.4%. Tennessee's leading scorer, Chaz Lanier, went 3-of-17 (17.7%) from beyond the arc in the first two meetings but is a 41.0% shooter on the season. Expect both figures to return toward the mean in the Sweet 16." — Grant Hughes, 247Sports
