SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – MARCH 26: JT Toppin #15 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders works out during a practice session ahead of the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Chase Center on March 26, 2025 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Author + Laura Bernheim
Riding the momentum of back-to-back upsets, Arkansas aims to continue their Cinderella run against Texas Tech in Thursday's Sweet 16 matchup at San Francisco's Chase Center. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:09 p.m. ET.
The No. 10 seed Razorbacks (22-13) secured their spot with a 75-66 victory over No. 2 seed St. John's that saw freshmen guards Billy Richmond III and Karter Knox combining for 31 points and 15 rebounds.
Texas Tech advanced by defeating Drake 77-64 behind strong offensive performances from JT Toppin and Darrion Williams, who combined for 53 points by shooting an incredible 70.9% from the field.
The Red Raiders (27-8) have overcome injuries to key players like senior guard Chance McMillian, who has missed the past three games because of an upper-body injury. McMillian, averaging 14.2 points per game, remains questionable for the Sweet 16 matchup.
The Razorbacks, meanwhile, have embraced the underdog role and might boost their lineup with leading scorer and rebounder Adou Thiero, potentially returning from a knee injury.
Arkansas secured a narrow 68-66 victory over the Red Raiders in their last NCAA Tournament meeting in 2021, but Texas Tech holds the narrowest of edges in the teams' all-time series at 40-39.
Spread
- Arkansas +5.5 (-111)
- Texas Tech -5.5 (-109)
Moneyline
- Arkansas +198
- Texas Tech -243
Total
- OVER 148.5 (-108)
- UNDER 148.5 (-112)
*The above data was collected on March 27, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Betting Trends
- Texas Tech is 17-16-1 against the spread this season, while Arkansas is 16-17-2.
- Arkansas covered the spread in both NCAA Tournament games and is 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 games.
- Texas Tech covered one of two NCAA Tournament games but is just 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 games.
- Texas Tech has won outright on the moneyline in 18 of their last 23 games.
- Arkansas hit the team total OVER in eight of their last nine games.
- Texas Tech has hit the team total OVER in 10 of their last 12 games.
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Injury Reports
Arkansas
- Adou Thiero, F - Questionable (knee)
Texas Tech
- Chance McMillian, G - Questionable (upper body)
- Eemeli Yalaho, F - Questionable (upper body)
- Jazz Henderson, G - Out (lower body)
Arkansas vs. Texas Predictions and Picks
"Arkansas beat Kansas because it forced 16 turnovers. Texas Tech hasn't turned it over more than 10 times in a game for well over a month. Arkansas beat St. John's, largely because the Johnnies can't shoot (2-for-22 from 3-point range). Texas Tech has made double-digit treys in 21 games this year. Arkansas is a very good defense, but it needs to play its best game of the year. If Chance McMillian is still sidelined with an upper-body injury, Arkansas is a live dog. But I think Texas Tech's layered elite halfcourt offense is the difference-maker." — Isaac Trotter, CBS Sports
"Arkansas was able to outlast a broken Kansas offense in the opener, with that win as much about the Jayhawks giving away the game down the stretch. In the Round of 32, the Hogs' interior defense forced a poor-shooting St. John's team outside, leaving the Red Storm to shoot 28% from the field. Texas Tech, however, is not in the habit of handing over wins, and it can make you pay from the perimeter. The Red Raiders have a tremendous interior presence, anchored by JT Toppin and Darrion Williams .... But TTU presents the biggest outside threat the Razorbacks have faced in the tournament." — Jason Logan, Covers.com
"Arkansas is playing with a ton of confidence, but Texas Tech is better on both offense and defense. And with how great JT Toppin has been so far this tournament, the Razorbacks' defense has a huge challenge ahead. The odds of the Hogs continuing their surprise run through the tournament are much higher if they can find a way to stop Toppin, but with how many different offensive weapons Tech has, it will be an uphill battle. And with the questions surrounding Arkansas' rotation, it's a little easier to pick the stable Red Raiders defense." Justin Wiles, BustingBrackets.com
