JUPITER, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 26: Sandy Alcantara #22 of the Miami Marlins looks on prior to a spring training game against the New York Mets at Roger Dean Stadium on February 26, 2025 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)
The Pittsburgh Pirates will put one of MLB's sharpest trends to the test by debuting in Miami this Thursday afternoon at 4 PM. Pittsburgh's record against Miami has been very good lately. How good? To the point where Marlins manager Clayton McCullough may start giving his team the business about it, like Pop Fischer of the New York Knights. "Hey! Don't you know how I hate losing to the Pirates?"
The Marlins have been losing to the Pirates since 2023. In fact, the clubs met for two series last season without Miami winning once, Pittsburgh earning a 7-0 sweep of Magic City in the process. On that basis, it's common sense for Pittsburgh to carry a steep (-155) sportsbook line to win on Opening Day in Miami. Pittsburgh has been close to .500 in the MLB regular season, while Miami just fell back into the cellar with a 100-loss year. When you've seen a team sweep in consecutive series, there remains a temptation to cast the Pirates as bigger favorites to beat the Marlins again.
Then again, the Pittsburgh Pirates just had one of the MLB's worst preseason performances at the plate. Pittsburgh's bats got even quieter once veterans came back after the MLB Spring Breakout. Will the Buccos wake up and maintain a streak in Miami?
Spread
- Pirates - 1.5 (+121)
- Marlines +1.5 (-146)
Moneyline
- Pirates (-156)
- Marlines (+131)
Total
- Over 6.5 (-112)
- Under 6.5 (-108)
*The above data was collected on March 26, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends
- The Pittsburgh Pirates are 8-0 in their last eight games against the Miami Marlins.
- The total has gone under in 10 of Pittsburgh's last 15 games.
- Run totals have gone over in five of Miami's last seven games against Pittsburgh.
Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Reports
Miami Marlins
- Relief pitcher Ryan Weathers is day-to-day with a left forearm injury
- Relief pitcher Declan Cronin is day-to-day with left hip discomfort
Pittsburgh Pirates
- None
Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions & Picks
Pittsburgh's likely starter, Paul Skenes, struck out nine batters in a 3-2 win over Miami last summer. That helps make the Pirates' pick to win popular, too. Sandy Alcántara will start for the Marlins after not getting a "W" versus Pittsburgh since the 2021 season. Just as Alcántara prepares to face the Pirates, his name is also in trade rumors involving both New York clubs.
"As the New York Yankees grapple with the loss of Garrit Cole," says Sara Molnick of Pinstripes Nation, "the front office is actively exploring avenues to reinforce their starting rotation. A prominent name surfacing in trade discussions is Miami Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcántara, the 2022 National League Cy Young Award winner."
If Thursday's star pitcher is preoccupied, the game's batters may be more so. A solid wind is forecast to blow straight at home plate on an 80-degree day that couldn't be more perfect for pitchers in March. The weather could assist Pittsburgh's new ace. It could help a wily veteran like Alcántara more, making Thursday's "under" total runs bet into a solid call.
