When you think about all the technology, statistics and data available these days, finding an edge when betting is probably harder than it has ever been! That’s why our friends at Dimers.com created their Quick Picks section – to alert sports bettors when their algorithm has identified an edge vs. the sportsbooks.
Basically, you need to be armed and ready to go when an opportunity presents, because once an edge is identified it can evaporate in a matter of minutes when the money starts flying through the door.
However, this doesn’t mean there aren’t profits to be made by swimming against the tide of public money, it just means you need to be more than a modern day Michael Phelps to capitalize. Well, maybe not.
You see, edges are much easier to find in those less popular sports betting markets, success outside of those more ‘common’ sports needs to be managed carefully, though. It will quite literally pay if you can force yourself to adopt a ‘slow-and-steady wins the race’ type approach instead. Why? Well, you don’t want those odds makers being alerted to the fact that you are an expert when it comes to the Nigerian Tenpin Bowling League, now do you? Once they’re on to you, you can kiss goodbye to those juicy odds you’d been getting.
Find a niche, and milk it for all it’s worth.
2. Always look for value
You will often hear experienced bettors say “you can’t eat value” – and to some extent that is totally true. But, and it is a big ‘but’, the term ‘value’ is so often misinterpreted.
Plenty of people will have you believe that looking for value means you’re only searching for underdogs – this is fundamentally incorrect.
The truth is value is everywhere. A bet can still be good value even if the odds are as low as -250. How, we hear you ask? Well, if you believe they’re an 80% chance of actually winning, any odds better than -400 is absolutely ‘value’ in this case.
Equally, a team at +10 points isn’t necessarily better value than their opponents at -10 points if your analysis says the favorites will win by 20 and cover that -10 line easily.
Successful bettors are often looking for value before they even consider what the result or outcome of a game may be. Head over heart. If the odds or lines on offer seems off to you, identify which side you think the value lies on and then capitalize.
Put simply, value can be defined as; the probability of an outcome occurring is greater than the probability implied by the odds posted by the sportsbooks.
3. Trust the process
No, not Joel Embiid, but staying the course, or keeping the faith, is crucial to any long term strategy. Sure, the strategy will evolve significantly over time, but remaining true to the philosophies that got you to the start line are important. Better yet, if you factor in the use of some trusted predictive analytics models you can save yourself considerable time and effort. These models don’t have to be your only source of truth, but it is certainly worth running your eyes over those that you like.
A good starting point is the Dimers Bet Hub. In there you can find predictions for all popular bet types for every major pro and college sport. They use a system called the ‘Monte Carlo Method’ to identify opportunities once the algorithm has simulated a game or event over 10,000 different times. It’s powerful stuff – and free – so it’s a resource you really need to take a look at!
4. Identify the type of bettor you are
Are you a risk-taker, or risk-averse? Given you’re a sports bettor, it’s most likely to be the former, but plenty of successful gamblers have carved out a great career by taking only calculated risks when betting -not being risk-averse, so to speak, but more so conservative.
Every bettor has a different risk profile – understanding what yours is, and staying true to it, will stand you in good stead over the journey.
5. Bankroll respect
Most unsuccessful bettors don’t respect their bankroll and get carried away easily. They put down bets on anything and everything, hoping to get on a hot streak that will make them richer than they were at the start of the day. If there isn’t an element of discipline to your betting then it’s going to become an expensive pastime.
Pro tip: You can’t call it winnings or profit until you’ve placed those sweet green notes firmly into your wallet. Until then, it may as well be Monopoly money, so be disciplined. If it’s some play money you’re after, you should claim as many sportsbook welcome offers as you can while the books are throwing bonus bets around like it’s Christmas.
6. Outside interests
Don’t let betting on sports be an all-consuming activity. It’s important to have other activities to turn to when a mental break is required. Even the most successful bettors have periods where they take a break and don’t bet.
Taking a break is even more important when results haven’t been going your way. Clouded judgement can start to creep in and results can decline even further.
7. There’s no such thing as luck
The worst strategy you can adopt for pretty much all aspects of everyday life is to rely on luck. In gambling terms it really doesn’t exist, as, over time, it all tends to equal out anyways.
Find an edge, identify some value and then capitalize.