It’s College Football Championship Weekend And My Chaos Theory Is Alive And Well
It's College Football Championship Weekend and my chaos theory is alive and well. There are so many ways the CFP final rankings could go and it all depends on what happens this weekend. Lets break it all down for you shall we?
Where FBS stands as it enters conference championship weekend:
With conference championship games remaining, Georgia, Michigan and TCU all control their own destiny to the College Football Playoff as undefeated teams. However, that final spot is up for grabs between USC, Ohio State and Alabama.
Despite losing to Michigan on Saturday, Ohio State still has the fourth-best chance to reach the Playoff according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Best Chance to Reach College Football Playoff:
Georgia 99.8%
Michigan 98.7%
TCU 89.6%
Ohio State 70.6%
USC 19.8%
Alabama 16.3%
Many are asking why does the Allstate Playoff Predictor believe Ohio State has such a strong (71%) chance to reach the College Football Playoff, despite losing to Michigan? Here is one explanation:
There are essentially two spots for three teams: TCU, USC and Ohio State. Neither TCU nor USC is guaranteed a victory next week, and in fact USC is an underdog. There is a 79% chance that at least one of TCU or USC lose, according to FPI. If either – particularly USC – loses, that gives Ohio State a very good chance to get into the CFP. Heading into conference championship weekend, that is a big reason – but not the only reason – why the Predictor is bullish on the Buckeyes.
USC and Ohio State are both one-loss teams, and USC only lost by one point while Ohio State lost by 22. So why is Ohio State so much better in terms of efficiency and FPI? Two reasons:
- Four of USC’s wins have been in one-score games, while all of Ohio State’s wins were by multiple scores.
- Ohio State has played a more difficult schedule (currently 34th-most difficult to USC’s 57th)
ESPN's CFB Senior Writer Heather Dinich also had some great takes on this subject. The bottom line is my(Pete's) chaos theory is finally in full force, especially if both USC and TCU lose their respective conference championship games.
More College Football Playoff Chaos Fun Facts
Isn’t it as simple as: a one-loss conference champion should be in?
The entire reason there is a selection committee in the first place is because not all wins and not all losses in college football are equal given the vast disparity in skill level of opponents. Because USC played a softer schedule, it is easier to achieve one-loss against it. Strength of Record is able to reconcile differences in both record and schedule.
However, USC has three wins against teams currently ranked in the Playoff Committee rankings and could pick up another with a win over Utah in the Pac-12 championship game. No other school has more than two wins against the current Playoff Top 25.
Alabama Is Still Alive!
Alabama’s path to the Playoff is extremely narrow, especially if it is behind Ohio State in Tuesday’s Playoff rankings. The Crimson Tide’s best path to the Playoff is Michigan winning the Big Ten while TCU and USC lose their conference championship games; even then Alabama’s chance to reach the Playoff is only 27%.
CFB Conference Championship Betting Fun Facts
With big spreads in the SEC and Big Ten championship games … only six teams have won a conference championship game as an underdog of two or more touchdowns:
Texas +20.5 vs Nebraska, 1996 Big 12
Miami (OH) +17.5 vs Northern Illinois, 2010 MAC
Texas A&M +17.5 vs Kansas State, 1998 Big 12
Buffalo +15.5 vs Northern Illinois, 2008 MAC
Kansas State +14 vs Oklahoma, 2003 Big 12
Florida State +14 vs Virginia tech, 2005 ACC
Michigan rolls in 2nd half to defeat Ohio State; LSU and Clemson drop out of College Football Playoff race Plus The Real Top 25 CFP Rankings
Michigan rolls in 2nd half to defeat Ohio State; LSU and Clemson drop out of college football playoff race plus The Real Top 25 CFP Rankings.
Well, most of us didn't see that coming! What an incredible weekend in college football and there are going to be some changes in The Real Top 25 Playoff Rankings that is for sure.
The conference championship games are all set across the FBS after Saturday’s action:
Friday, December 2
Conference USA: North Texas vs UTSA
Pac-12: Utah vs USC
Saturday, December 3
Big 12: Kansas State vs TCU
MAC: Toledo vs Ohio
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina vs Troy
SEC: LSU vs Georgia
Mountain West: Fresno State vs Boise State
American: UCF vs Tulane
ACC: Clemson vs North Carolina
Big Ten: Purdue vs Michigan
Ok Michigan kids, lets recap how we got here!
Michigan won 45-23, marking its first win at Ohio State since 2000. That snapped a 9-game losing streak in Columbus, its longest road losing streak vs a single opponent in the AP Poll era (since 1936). The Wolverines have won consecutive meetings vs Ohio State for the first time since 1999 and 2000.
The Wolverines are 12-0 for the first time since 1997. That season, they split the national title with Nebraska. Michigan’s 45 points are tied for its 3rd-most against Ohio State in series history. This was also the largest margin of victory for the Wolverines in Columbus since 1976.
Ohio State led 20-17 at halftime, but the 2nd half was all Michigan. The Wolverines outscored the Buckeyes 28-3 in the 2nd half, the first time that Ohio State has been outscored by 25 points in a half since 1999. Michigan had 242 rushing yards in the 2nd half, compared to just 19 for Ohio State.
Who led the charge for the Wolverines? Donovan Edwards, who finished with 216 rushing yards, including 170 in the 4th quarter. Can't wait for all the trash talking from Michigan fans on Monday during the Shemon and Sheppard Show.
Tigers Are Not Terrific (LSU, Clemson); USC Takes Advantage
(6) USC 38, (15) Notre Dame 27
With the losses by Ohio State, LSU and Clemson, USC is in position to make a run at the College Football Playoff after winning 38-27 vs Notre Dame. The Trojans are 11-1 to start a season for the first time since 2008.
Caleb Williams finished 18-22 for 232 passing yards and a passing touchdown. He also three rushing touchdowns, the most in a game by a USC quarterback over the last 25 years. He has has 10 rushing touchdowns this season, the
most by any USC quarterback in a career over the last 25 years.
In the loss, Drew Pyne completed his first 15 passes, the longest streak to start a game in Notre Dame history. In addition, Pyne finished 23-26 (88.5%), the highest completion percentage in a game in Notre Dame history (min.
15 pass attempts).
Texas A&M 38, (5) LSU 23
LSU had a chance to become the first two-loss team to reach the College Football Playoff. Those hopes were dashed on Saturday after losing 38-23 against Texas A&M.
The Aggies scored a season-high 38 points, are you kidding me, and snapped a 13-game streak of scoring fewer than 30 points against FBS opponents. Texas A&M has won two straight games after losing its previous six contests.
With the loss, LSU is the first three-loss team to reach the SEC Championship Game since Florida in 2016. The last three-loss team to win the SEC Championship Game? LSU in 2001.
South Carolina 31, (8) Clemson 30
Clemson entered its regular-season finale with a 37% chance to reach the College Football Playoff, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, but those chances plummeted with South Carolina’s shocking 31-30 win over the Tigers at Death
Valley.
South Carolina is the first team to win consecutive team games vs AP Top-10 opponents while being unranked in both contests since Auburn in 2003. Clemson's 40 game home winning streak is now over.
