BIG Offseason Moves
What an offseason from the Broncos! One of the biggest moves of the offseason, if not the biggest, was the Russell Wilson trade. The Broncos go from drafting in the top-10 to an immediate playoff contender. They got their quarterback. They also went out and hired one of the bright offensive minds in the game. Nathaniel Hackett comes in from Green Bay where he helped lead on of the premier offenses in the game. I am really excited to see what Russ can do with an offensive minded head coach for the first time in his career. The trade for Russ completely changed the Denver Broncos 2022 outlook.
But… the AFC West
Before the trade for Russ, the Broncos were clearly the worst team in the division. But most of that was due to their quarterback play. Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater were never going to outduel the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, or Justin Herbert. They went 1-5 in AFC West games last season after posting the same divisional record in 2020. The Chargers and Raiders are significantly better entering 2022 compared to how they finished 2021, and the Chiefs still have one of the best quarterbacks in the game. This is far and away the best division in the sport.
Things Can Turn Around Quickly
The Denver Broncos have combined for 12 wins over the last 2 seasons. They have had a tough time in close games as well. they post a 5-11 record in one score games over the last 2 seasons. What wins close games? Quarterback play and coaching. The 2 areas the Broncos addressed this offseason. If they can go just .500 in one score games, then this team will progress to a competitive side. Here’s your Denver Broncos 2022 Outlook.
Schedule Breakdown
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9/12 @ Seattle Seahawks (Monday Night Football)
9/18 vs. Houston Texans
9/25 vs. San Francisco 49ers
10/2 @ Las Vegas Raiders
10/6 vs. Indianapolis Colts (Thursday Night Football)
10/17 @ Los Angeles Chargers (Monday Night Football)
10/23 vs. New York Jets
10/30 @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
11/6 BYE
11/13 @ Tennessee Titans
11/20 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
11/27 @ Carolina Panthers
12/4 @ Baltimore Ravens
12/11 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
12/18 vs. Arizona Cardinals
12/25 @ Los Angeles Rams
1/1 @ Kansas City Chiefs
1/8 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Broncos were handed 2-0 by the NFL. Seattle and Houston are two of the worst rosters in the league. Then they get into the first 4-game stretch where they can face adversity. San Francisco at home on Sunday night is a question mark because of the Trey Lance. I’ll give them the win here to push them to 3-0. I see 1 win over their next 3 games; a home Thursday night game against Indy. 3-3 after their first 6 games. They then get the Jets and Jags before hitting their bye week. They should go 2-0 here, but a London game against the Jags could be a tricky spot. 2-0 to push them to 5-3 entering the bye week.
Following the bye week, there is only 1 for sure win on the schedule (@ Carolina on 11/27). I think they’re capable of beating Tennessee coming off a bye to get to 6-3. I say they split with the Raiders, and 7-3 is a real shot. I’ve already given them the Panthers win; 8-3. At Baltimore is a 1 o’clock kick. I think the Ravens take this game. The Chiefs game is the second of a back-to-back road spot for the Chiefs. Broncos get it done here as well; 9-4. They get Arizona in week 15. The Cardinals fall apart late in the season. 10-4. Their last 3 are all losses.
Record: 11-6 (wins vs. Seattle, Houston, San Francisco, Indianapolis, Jets, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Las Vegas, Carolina, Kansas City, Arizona)
Key Additions
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Russell Wilson (trade from Denver)
Randy Gregory (Dallas Cowboys); 5-year/$70 million
CB K’Waun Williams (San Francisco 49ers); 2-year/$5.2 million
G Billy Turner (Green Bay Packers); 1-year/$2.5 million
RB Melvin Gordon (re-signing); 1-year/$2.5 million
G Tom Compton (San Francisco 49ers); 1-year/$2.5 million
Fantasy Outlook
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Russell Wilson’s addition changes the fantasy outlook for pretty much everyone on the offense. Russ is a starter for your fantasy league. Don’t use an early round pick on him, but if he’s hanging around in the 7th round, there is value there.
The running backs scare me a little bit. Javonte Williams is entering his second year, and some are tagging him as a breakout candidate. I’m hesitant though. The Broncos bringing back Melvin Gordon tells me that they see a role for him in this offense. I think Williams is being targeted a little too high, but there is real value on Melvin Gordon, who should slide in your draft because Williams is highly valued.
The receiver corps is just a difficult to handicap. Cortland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and KJ Hamler are all going to be used in the passing attack. I just can’t tell you who the #1 option will be. Don’t rely on any of these guys to be your WR1, but Sutton and Jeudy can slide into a WR2 role. I think targeting Patrick and Hamler later on is the smarter play. This might be the best WR group Russ has ever had from top to bottom.
Best Case Scenario
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Best case, this team wins the AFC West and is hosting multiple playoff games. Make no mistake about it, the standard in Denver is now deep playoff run, or bust. Their for sure wins (or as close to a for sure win in the NFL) are Seattle, Houston, New York Jets, Jacksonville, and Carolina. The games where Broncos fans will think they SHOULD win include the 3 home games against AFC West opponents, and Sunday night game against Trey Lance, a home TNF game against Indy, and a late game against Arizona. Road games against Tennessee and Baltimore are tough, but in a perfect world they sweep.
Best Case; 13-4 and AFC West Champs