The second-seeded New England Patriots battle the first-seeded Denver Broncos in this AFC Championship showdown on Sunday afternoon at 3 p.m. EST.
The Patriots just beat the Houston Texans at home in the AFC Divisional Round 28-16. This was a decently close game that was a bit sloppy and full of turnovers by both teams. In the end, New England knew how to finish drives, while Houston had to settle for field goals. Total yards were close, and the Texans won in passing yards 193-143, while the Patriots won in rushing yards 105-48. New England won the turnover battle 5-3 and even had a defensive touchdown. The Patriots' red zone offense was 1-for-1 and the red zone defense was 3-for-4 on stops.
The Broncos just beat the Buffalo Bills at home in the AFC Divisional Round 33-30, in overtime. This was a back-and-forth game of runs. Denver was up 20-10 at the half, then Buffalo slowly came back to take a four-point lead late in the game. The Broncos retook the lead with 55 seconds left, and the Bills tied things up with five seconds left. Both teams had the ball once in overtime and Denver was able to get some penalties and set up the field goal. The Broncos lost in total yards 449-349 and in rushing yards 183-70. Denver lost in time of possession but won the turnover battle 5-1. The Broncos' red zone offense was 1-for-4 and the red zone defense was 2-for-5 on stops.
Spread
- Patriots -4.5 (+103)
- Broncos +4.5 (-110)
Money line
- Patriots -222
- Broncos +208
Total
- OVER 42.5 (-107)
- UNDER 42.5 (+102)
Note: The above data was collected on Jan. 23, 2026, and may have changed since writing.
Patriots vs Broncos Betting Trends
- New England is 5-0 ATS in its last five games.
- The total has gone OVER in six of New England's last seven games.
- New England is 5-0 SU in its last five games.
- The total has gone OVER in five of Denver's last seven games.
- Denver is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games.
- The total has gone OVER in eight of Denver's last 12 games against New England.
Patriots vs Broncos Injury Reports
New England Patriots
- Mack Hollins, WR - Injured reserve
- Garrett Bradbury, C - Questionable
- Harold Landry III, LB - Questionable
- Christian Elliss, LB - Questionable
- Terrell Jennings, RB - Injured reserve
- Thayer Munford Jr., OT - Questionable
- Marte Mapu, LB - Questionable
- Joshua Farmer, DT - Injured reserve
- Carlton Davis III, CB - Questionable
- Antonio Gibson, RB - Injured reserve
- Isaiah Iton, DT - Injured reserve
- Deneric Prince, RB - Injured reserve
- Lan Larison, RB - Injured reserve
- Marcellas Dial Jr., CB - Injured reserve
- Jaquelin Roy, DT - Injured reserve
- Yasir Durant, OT - Injured reserve
- Brock Lampe, FB - Injured reserve
Denver Broncos
- J.K. Dobbins, RB - Injured reserve
- Pat Bryant, WR - Questionable
- Troy Franklin, WR - Questionable
- Lucas Krull, TE - Injured reserve
- Luke Wattenberg, C - Injured reserve
- Bo Nix, QB - Out
- Alex Forsyth, C - Questionable
- Drew Sanders, LB - Injured reserve
- Brandon Jones, S - Injured reserve
- Matt Peart, OT - Injured reserve
- Michael Burton, FB - Injured reserve
- Nick Gargiulo, G - Injured reserve
- Matt Henningsen, DE - Injured reserve
- Johnny Walker Jr., LB - Injured reserve
Patriots vs Broncos Predictions and Picks
New England finished the season ranked fourth in passing yards, sixth in rushing yards, second in points scored, and fourth in points against. Quarterback Drake Maye leads one of the NFL's most explosive passing offenses and will look to clean up his turnover from his first two playoff games. All-time, New England is 0-4 in playoff games in Denver, but they are 8-0 on the road in the 2025 season. New England's defensive front has allowed just 2.03 yards per carry this postseason, and that presents a massive challenge for Denver's struggling ground game.
Denver finished the season ranked 11th in passing yards, 16th in rushing yards, 14th in points scored, and third in points allowed. Quarterback Bo Nix got injured in the last game and is out for the season. The Broncos must rely on Jarrett Stidham, who will be facing his former team. Denver features the NFL's No. 1 defense in yards per play (4.5) and recorded a franchise-record 68 sacks this season. They aim to exploit a New England offensive line that allowed 10 sacks in its first two playoff games. Wide receiver Courtland Sutton led the team with 1,017 receiving yards and will try to be a solid target for Stidham.
Best Bet: Under
The Patriots are top-5 on both sides of the ball but have been a little sloppy with taking care of the ball this postseason. Stidham might take a minute to get the offense going, but he will be extra motivated playing against his former team, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. The Broncos also have a great defense and know how to pressure the quarterback well.
