The fifth-seeded Houston Texans battle the second-seeded New England Patriots in this AFC Divisional Round showdown on Sunday afternoon at 3 p.m. EST.
The Texans just beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road in the AFC Wild Card Round 30-6. For three quarters, it was a low-scoring game and Houston led 7-6 going into the fourth quarter. From there it was a mix of defensive touchdowns with one offensive touchdown that blew the game wide open. The Texans won in total yards 408-175, in passing yards 244-122, and in rushing yards 164-63. The game was close for a while because Houston lost the turnover battle 3-2. The red zone offense was 2-for-3 and the red zone defense was 2-for-2 on stops. Wide receiver Christian Kirk led the way on offense with eight catches for 144 yards and one touchdown.
The Patriots just beat the Los Angeles Chargers at home in the AFC Wild Card Round, 16-3. This game was a defensive grind and sloppy at times. The only touchdown came in the fourth quarter to put the Pats up two scores. The New England third down defense was 9-for-10 on stops, and they won in total yards 381-207. The Patriots won in passing yards 235-120 and in rushing yards 146-87. They lost the turnover battle 2-1 and went 0-for-3 in the red zone, while the red zone defense was 2-for-2 on stops.
Spread
- Texans +3.5 (-117)
- Patriots -3.5 (+108)
Money line
- Texans +156
- Patriots -163
Total
- OVER 41.5 (+108)
- UNDER 41.5 (-117)
Note: The above data was collected on Jan. 16, 2026, and may have changed since writing.
Texans vs Patriots Betting Trends
- Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Houston's last 19 games.
- Houston is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games.
- New England is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
- The total has gone OVER in five of New England's last six games.
- New England is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games.
Texans vs Patriots Injury Reports
Houston Texans
- Jawhar Jordan, RB - Questionable
- Nico Collins, WR - Questionable
- Ajani Carter, CB - Injured reserve
- Justin Watson, WR - Questionable
- Sheldon Rankins, DT - Questionable
- Kamari Lassiter, CB - Questionable
- Tytus Howard, OT - Questionable
- Ed Ingram, G - Questionable
- Trent Brown OT - Questionable
- Azeez Al-Shaair, LB - Questionable
- Denico Autry, DE - Questionable
- Tank Dell, WR - Out
- Joe Mixon, RB - Out
- Jake Hansen, LB - Injured reserve
- Mario Edwards Jr., DT - Injured reserve
- Brevin Jordan, TE - Injured reserve
- Tim Settle Jr., DT - Injured reserve
- M.J. Stewart, S - Injured reserve
- Jaylin Smith, CB - Injured reserve
- Jimmie Ward, S - Out
- Folorunso Fatukasi, DT - Injured reserve
- Kyonte Hamilton, DT - Injured reserve
- Kurt Hinish, DT - Out
New England Patriots
- Terrell Jennings, RB - Injured reserve
- Christian Gonzalez, CB - Questionable
- Alex Austin, CB - Injured reserve
- Morgan Moses, OT - Questionable
- Harold Landry III, LB - Questionable
- Thayer Munford Jr., OT - Questionable
- Anfernee Jennings, LB - Questionable
- Mack Hollins, WR - Injured reserve
- Joshua Farmer, DT - Injured reserve
- Antonio Gibson, RB - Injured reserve
- Isaiah Iton, DT - Injured reserve
- Deneric Prince, RB - Injured reserve
- Lan Larison, RB - Injured reserve
- Marcellas Dial Jr., CB - Injured reserve
- Jaquelin Roy, DT - Injured reserve
- Yasir Durant, OT - Injured reserve
- Brock Lampe, FB - Injured reserve
Texans vs Patriots Predictions and Picks
Houston finished the season ranked 14th in passing yards, 22nd in rushing yards, 13th in points scored, and second in points against. The Texans' defense, which is led by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, is considered one of the NFL's most disruptive units and ranks first in total yards allowed. On offense, rookie running back Woody Marks may need to repeat his 112-yard Wild Card performance to carry the offense. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is looking to bounce back after a shaky Wild Card showing that included three turnovers. This team is capable of slowing down the Patriots offense, but can their offense do enough to get the upset?
New England finished the season ranked fourth in passing yards, sixth in rushing yards, second in points scored, and fourth in points allowed. The Patriots' offense averaged 28.8 points per game this season and success for New England in this game is making sure quarterback Drake Maye is protected and can make some big plays. A key player to watch will be tight end Hunter Henry, who led the team with seven receiving touchdowns and remains a primary target for Maye. The Texans struggle a bit at defending tight ends, and he will be a big name in critical moments.
Best Bet: Under
Both of these teams had defensive and somewhat sloppy Wild Card Round games but came through with solid fourth quarters. Including the playoffs, the Texans have won 10 games in a row and the defense will look to pick up some turnovers. The Patriots are a top-five defense as well and have a way better offense on paper. It will be another cold and defensive type of game, with the Patriots slowly breaking away late.
