College Football Playoff Semifinals: Miami Hurricanes vs Ole Miss Rebels Odds, Spread, and Total
Miami may be minting its best defense since the Y2K era's glory years. The No. 10 seeded Hurricanes stunned the Ohio State Buckeyes in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, picking off opposing signal-caller Julian Sayin and holding OSU to a meek 45 rushing yards. Now, Miami's defense will face one of 2025-26's best offensive teams in the tournament's No. 6 seeded Ole Miss Rebels. The surprise semifinalists will each try to go a step further at the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday at 7:30 p.m. EST.
Mississippi is in full gear this postseason, outscoring Georgia in a 39-34 revenge win on New Year's Day that put the Rebels in the semifinals. But if Ole Miss is a machine, its engineers are distracted. Former head coach Lane Kiffin, who departed for LSU after the regular season, is luring so many Ole Miss assistant coaches to Baton Rouge that the Rebels' whole staff is in upheaval before the semis.
In a season of college players moving around, will it be coaches who fly the coop and spoil things for a top contender? The Miami Hurricanes are glad to take advantage if that is the case. Carson Beck and the 'Canes are Vegas favorites to win the Fiesta Bowl and advance to the national title tilt on Jan. 19.
Spread
- Hurricanes -3.5 (+108)
- Rebels +3.5 (-113)
Money line
- Hurricanes -163
- Rebels +156
Total
- Over 52.5 (-108)
- Under 52.5 (-104)
Note: The above data was collected on Jan. 8, 2026, and may have changed since writing.
Miami Hurricanes vs Ole Miss Rebels Betting Trends
- Each team has covered the spread three consecutive times.
- Ole Miss averages 6.9 yards-per-play through two playoff games.
- Miami's defense produced five shutout quarters in the first two rounds.
Miami Hurricanes vs Ole Miss Rebels Injury Reports
Miami Hurricanes
- Wide receiver Daylyn Upshaw is out with a foot injury.
- Linebacker Malik Bryant is out with an undisclosed injury.
- Cornerback O.J. Frederique is probable with a lower-leg injury.
- Cornerback Damari Brown is questionable with a foot injury.
- Defensive lineman Ahmed Moten Sr. is questionable with an ankle injury.
Ole Miss Rebels
- Defensive end Kam Franklin is questionable with an undisclosed injury.
- Tight end Dae'Quan Wright is probable with an undisclosed injury.
- Running back Kewan Lacy is probable with an undisclosed injury.
- Tight end Caleb Odom is probable with an undisclosed injury.
- Safety John Saunders Jr is out with an undisclosed injury.
- Cornerback Cedrick Beavers is out with an undisclosed injury.
Miami Hurricanes vs Ole Miss Rebels Predictions and Picks
Kiffin has been accused of tampering with players when switching teams. Now the coach's opportunism has spawned chaos of a different sort, as Ole Miss assistants go with Kiffin to LSU. Some of the Ole Miss assistants in question will continue to coach Ole Miss in the CFP, but others will not, as relayed by ESPN's Mark Schlabach and Heather Dinich: "LSU's administration is allowing offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. and running backs coach Kevin Smith to continue … co-offensive coordinator Joe Cox and (wide receivers coach) George McDonald aren't expected to coach in the Fiesta Bowl."
Trinidad Chambliss is making his own distractions, showing up in headlines trying to convince the NCAA to let him stay another year as Mississippi's quarterback. At some point in Thursday's playoff game, the Rebels' communication adjustments will lead to a breakdown, and potentially a turnover. Is Miami the right contender to take advantage and grab the football? By the looks of Miami's quarterfinal win, yes indeed. Akheem Mesidor's defensive line is as athletic as they come. The "turnover chain" is a Miami original.
Oxford is dealing with a dozen problems while The U's defense lies in wait. Watch for Beck to convert short-field touchdown drives, giving the Hurricanes a lead that they won't relinquish to the Rebels.
