The Swamp hosts the final chapter of a tumultuous season as Florida State chases bowl eligibility, and the Gators would love nothing more than to dash those hopes and end a challenging season on a high note. Kickoff at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is at 4:30 p.m. EST on ESPN2.
Florida State (5-6, 2-6 ACC) needs one win to secure bowl eligibility and come to Gainesville off a 21-11 loss to NC State last weekend. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos leads FSU with 2,520 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and eight interceptions to go with 480 rushing yards and eight scores. Receiver Duce Robinson has totaled 1,021 yards with six touchdowns, while the Seminoles average 478 yards per game (9th in FBS) and 34.1 points per game (24th).
Florida (3-8, 2-6 SEC) fell 31-11 to Tennessee last week, with quarterback DJ Lagway throwing for 2,096 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions on the season. Running back Jadan Baugh has added 904 rushing yards with six touchdowns, and wideout Vernell Brown III has 487 receiving yards.
FSU's offense faces a Florida defense that allows 374 yards per game (69th in FBS) and 24.3 points per game (65th). The Seminoles rank seventh in third-down conversion (51%) and 83rd in red-zone efficiency (82.7%), while Florida ranks 114th on third downs and 20th in red-zone defense (76.9%).
Spread
- Florida State +1.5 (-127)
- Florida -1.5 (-104)
Money line
- Florida State -108
- Florida -108
Total
- Over 50.5 (-117)
- Under 50.5 (-108)
Note: The above data was collected on Nov. 26, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Florida State vs Florida Betting Trends
- Florida State is 5-6 against the spread but 0-4 on the road.
- Florida is 4-7 against the spread, going 2-3 at home.
- The total has gone under in all of Florida State's past five games.
- The under has hit in 11 of Florida's last 15 games.
- The under has hit in 14 of the last 20 matchups between Florida State and Florida.
- Florida has won four of the last six meetings between these teams.
Florida State vs Florida Injury Reports
(As of Nov. 25, 2025)
Florida State
- Teriq Mallory, WR — Questionable
- Gavin Blackwell, WR — Questionable
- Elijah Moore, WR — Questionable
- Samuel Singleton Jr., RB — Questionable
- Gavin Markey, QB — Out
- Kam Davis, RB — Out
- Chase Loftin, TE — Out
Florida
- Ja'Kobi Jackson, RB — Questionable
- Duke Clark, RB — Questionable
- Muizz Tounkara, WR — Questionable
- Jackson Wade, WR — Questionable
- Taylor Spierto, WR — Questionable
- Eugene Wilson III, WR — Questionable
- Tramell Jones Jr., QB — Questionable
- Treyaun Webb, RB — Out
- Dallas Wilson, WR — Out
- Dijon Johnson, DB — Out
- LJ McCray, DE — Out
Florida State vs Florida Predictions and Picks
"The Gators have been much more competitive since firing Billy Napier as the team has as many against-the-spread wins (two) in four games under interim Billy Gonzales as it had in seven games under Napier. Florida won last year's matchup — by 20 points on the road — and hosting this year's contest gives it a massive advantage. The Seminoles have not won or covered in an away stadium since 2023 as they are 0-8 both straight-up and against the spread over that run." — Ross Kelly, CBS Sports
"Florida 27, FSU 17. Florida's season is over after this game, but they have a chance to prevent FSU from reaching a bowl game, and they will get it done. The Seminoles have not won on the road since 2023, and they have looked good in any of their four road gams this year." — JD McCarthy, FSU Wire
"Florida is not playing in a bowl game but has the opportunity to do two things: Avoid the worst season in Gainesville since the winless 1979 campaign; Keep its biggest in-state rivals out of the postseason. At this point, the players are simply playing for pride — and maybe even tryouts for their future transfer portal destinations — so there are still plenty of reasons for the team to go out and give its all .... Prediction: Florida 24, FSU 20." — Adam Dubbin, Gators Wire
