Inter Miami appears ready to win a championship after pasting Nashville SC by an 8-3 aggregate score in the MLS Cup's conference quarterfinal round. There's only one hiccup, and that's powerful FC Cincinnati's right to host Inter Miami in Sunday's conference semifinal at TQL Stadium, set to kick off at 5 p.m. EST.
Cincinnati is riding on a 20-win season and a No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. However, the first round of the postseason showed how delicate the Orange and Blue's quest for a title could be. Cincy won two one-goal matches over the Columbus Crew while losing the plot completely in an 0-4 loss in Columbus on Nov. 2, surrendering two tallies and taking a red card within a span of eight minutes.
Home field advantage counts for a lot in Major League Soccer, and this Sunday is a one-off elimination scenario. But the sportsbooks of Las Vegas won't bet against Lionel Messi with his Inter Miami teammate Luis Suarez coming back from a suspension. The Herons are favored at minus-odds to qualify by means of a regulation victory or a tiebreaker. Messi is drawing wagers at (-135) odds to score at least one goal.
Spread
- Inter Miami -1 (+275)
- FC Cincinnati +1 (-161)
Money line
- Inter Miami +117
- FC Cincinnati +195
- Draw +280
Total
- Over 3.25 (-105)
- Under 3.25 (-115)
Note: The above data was collected on Nov. 21, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati Betting Trends
- Inter Miami has scored three-or-more goals in nine of its last 11 matches.
- FC Cincinnati went 1-1-0 against Inter Miami this regular season.
- Cincinnati has lost only one of its previous eight matches.
Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati Injury Reports
Inter Miami
- Midfielder David Ruiz is out with a hamstring strain.
- Defender Ryan Sailor is out with a leg injury.
FC Cincinnati
- Defender Matt Miazga is out with a leg injury.
Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati Predictions and Picks
While the Suarez story soaks up headlines, Marvin Walters of Yahoo Sports contends that the Messi and Jordi Alba connection has been the Herons' key to a brilliant run of goalscoring in October and November: "Once a nostalgic reunion from Barcelona, (Messi and Alba) now form one of MLS's most lethal duos, combining for 40 goals and 29 assists so far this season."
Cincinnati's top strikers Evander and Kevin Denkey are off to a quiet start in the playoffs. It was Brenner's brace that lifted Cincy to a 2-1 win in the first round's rubber match with Columbus. Cincinnati can hope to play on the front foot and utilize teamwork to possess the ball, hoping to limit Messi's opportunities on the counterattack and on set-pieces. But the hosts will run into a Herons back line that's begun playing well following a shaky summer, aided by the surprisingly fine form of 23-year-old keeper Rocco Rios Novo.
The money line moved its needle too far Cincinnati's way due to the underdogs playing host on Sunday. No matter where the teams are performing, look for Inter Miami to qualify and move on to the final four.
