Florida returns to The Swamp Saturday, looking to steady its season and quiet the growing pressure surrounding head coach Billy Napier. The Gators take on a Mississippi State team coming off a bye week and still searching for its first SEC win. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. EST on the SEC Network.
The Gators (2-4, 1-2), facing the nation's toughest schedule, have dropped four of their last five. Quarterback DJ Lagway has thrown for 1,233 yards and nine touchdowns — but the offense has struggled to find rhythm, ranking 101st nationally in total offense (348.2 yards per game) and 104th in scoring (22.3 points).
Mississippi State (4-2, 0-2) started 4-0 before back-to-back league losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M. Quarterback Blake Shapen has thrown for 1,204 yards and nine touchdowns, but the Bulldogs will be without top rusher Fluff Bothwell (465 yards, 6 TDs) and could again miss starting right tackle Albert Reese IV.
Florida's defense has been the team's most consistent unit, ranking 33rd nationally in yards allowed (315.8 per game) and 38th in scoring (19.8 points per game). Linebacker Myles Graham leads the group with 34 tackles, while the secondary continues to battle injuries — including question marks around Jordan Castell, Cormani McClain, and Brien Taylor Jr.
Saturday marks Mississippi State's first trip to Gainesville since 2010. The Bulldogs have lost 14 straight SEC games dating back to 2023.
Spread
- MS State +9.5 (-108)
- Florida -9.5 (-108)
Money line
- MS State +285
- Florida -335
Total
- Over 50.5 (-113)
- Under 50.5 (-104)
Note: The above data was collected on Oct. 17, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
MS State vs Florida Betting Trends
- MS State is 5-1 against the spread this season, 1-1 on the road.
- Florida is 2-4 against the spread this year, 2-1 at home.
- MS State has lost 12 of its last 17 games and four of the last five against Florida.
- Florida is 6-1 against the spread at home in their past seven games.
- The under has hit in five of MS State's last seven games.
- The total has gone under in eight of Florida's past 10 matchups.
MS State vs Florida Injury Reports
MS State
- Will Whitson, DL — Out
- Blake Steen, OL — Out
- Fluff Bothwell, RB — Out
- Brennan Smith, OL — Out
- Isaac Smith, S — Questionable
- Albert Reese IV, OL — Questionable
Florida
- Treyaun Webb, RB — Out
- LJ McCray, DL — Out
- Aaron Gates, DB — Out
- Duke Clark, RB — Out
- Dijon Johnson, DB — Out
- Caleb Banks, DL — Out
- Jordan Castell, DB — Questionable
- Ja'Kobi Jackson, RB — Questionable
- Cormani McClain, DB — Questionable
- Brien Taylor Jr., DL — Questionable
- Devon Manuel, OL — Questionable
- Tony Livingston, TE — Questionable
MS State vs Florida Predictions and Picks
"After the Texas A&M loss, Florida needs this to prolong the season. Lose, and it'll be a long two weeks of buildup for the Cocktail Party against Georgia. The Florida defense will once again save the day, holding up against a Mississippi State offense whose passing game production has decreased by the week. The running attack won't make up for it. Florida 27, Mississippi State 23." — Pete Fiutak, College Football News
"Florida is going to take care of business against Mississippi State, in what will likely be one of the Gators' most complete games. UF's defense will overwhelm MSU's offense, while the Gators' wide receivers will have a big day against the Bulldogs. The sound victory will also make uncertainty around Billy Napier's future even more difficult." — Andrew Abadie, The Gainesville Sun
"Perhaps Florida is a better team than a 2-4 record could suggest, but it's still a team that had high expectations centered around quarterback DJ Lagway that haven't been met .... There is a lot of talent on Florida. The problem is it's rarely formed together to its full potential with (Florida head coach Billy) Napier .... If (right tackle Albert Reese IV) is out for MSU, that could be a big advantage for Florida's pass rush. Florida 27, Mississippi State 23." — Sam Sklar, The Clarion Ledger
