College Football 2025: Research Reveals 40% of Breakout Teams Will Keep Momentum

Fresh data shows that 4 in 10 college football teams that shot up in 2024 will stay strong next season. This finding comes from studying two decades of results, focusing on 16 teams that made big jumps in SP+ ratings.

"Over the past 20 years, we've seen an average of 1.9 teams improving by at least 20 ratings points in SP+ and an average of 18.0 improving by at least 10 points," said Bill Connelly, according to ESPN.

Arizona State stands out as next year's top pick. The Sun Devils flipped their luck from 3 wins to 11, climbing 72 spots in SP+ rankings. Stats point to 8.4 wins in 2025, putting them at spot 22.

The Fighting Illini matched this success, turning a losing season into 10 wins. With the most players coming back in their conference, Illinois sits at spot 19 with 8.7 wins in sight.

Miami tops the list of teams on the rise. The team jumped 18 spots last year while winning 10 games, and now sits at number 12 in the rankings.

Some teams that stumbled last year might bounce back strong. Michigan and Florida State, who fell hard from their combined 28-1 record to just 10 wins, look ready to climb again.

Despite their worst passing stats in years - just 129.1 yards per game - Michigan should grab nearly 10 wins. The numbers put them at spot 10 overall.

With a new coach running the offense and a fresh quarterback, Florida State aims to fix their 2-win season. The stats suggest almost 7 wins and a number 36 spot for them.

Player transfers haven't changed things much. Since 2021, 54% of teams that got better fell back the next year, down from 61% before. Just 25% dropped hard, better than the old rate of 32%.