The Miami Marlins will look to avenge their blowout defeat to the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. The Marlins have now dropped two straight games after winning four in a row, while the Cardinals aim to put together their second set of consecutive victories after the All-Star Break.
Standing in the way of Miami's chances of victory is their choice of starting pitcher. Sandy Alcantara, once the team's ace, has become a massive negative every time he steps on the mound, posting a 6.66 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 20 starts. Those numbers obviously indicate truly atrocious pitching, but Alcantara managed to turn back the clock in his last start, working seven scoreless innings against the San Diego Padres. A repeat performance is unlikely, but perhaps the righty can turn back the clock once more against a fairly familiar opponent.
Sonny Gray's appearance on the bump makes this a matchup of veteran arms. Fortunately for the Cardinals, Gray has aged a bit more gracefully than his Miami counterpart, putting up a 4.33 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in one more start than Alcantara. Additionally, almost all of Gray's numbers improve drastically when he plays at Busch Stadium, and the Marlins have had trouble at the plate in their last two contests. Saying that the Cardinals have the pitching advantage here is an understatement.
Spread
- Marlins +1.5 (-150)
- Cardinals -1.5 (+130)
Moneyline
- Marlins +140
- Cardinals -170
Totals
- Over 8 (+103)
- Under 8 (-123)
*The above data was collected on July 29, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Marlins vs Cardinals Betting Trends
- The Marlins are 62-43 ATS this season.
- The Marlins are 34-18 ATS on the road.
- The under is 28-25-1 in games following a Miami loss.
- The Cardinals are 56-52 ATS this year.
- The Cardinals are 26-28 ATS at home.
- The over is 20-8-4 when St. Louis enters the game as a home favorite.
Marlins vs Cardinals Injury Reports
Miami Marlins
- Connor Norby, 3B - Out
- Kyle Stowers, LF - Day-to-Day
- Derek Hill, CF - Out
- Jesus Tinoco, RP - Out
St. Louis Cardinals
- Lars Nootbaar, LF - Out
- Nolan Gorman, UTIL - Out
Marlins vs Cardinals Predictions and Picks
Bryan Joe of Statsalt writes, "The Marlins have been strong against the run line as an away underdog, covering 67.4% of the time (31-15). They also perform well in non-league games, with a 70.4% cover rate. On the other hand, the Cardinals have struggled as home favorites, covering just 33.3% of the time (10-20). St. Louis has been more reliable as home underdogs, covering 68.2% of the time (15-7). Both teams have shown contrasting trends, but Miami's recent success against the spread as an underdog makes them an appealing choice. With Alcantara's struggles, however, the Cardinals' offense could exploit his weaknesses. Bet on the Cardinals to cover the run line at home!"
The Cardinals are a solid pick, but they are not the most appealing selection on the board. That is the over by a wide margin. Alcantara will likely regress to his usual form here, and Gray has not been pitching particularly well lately. It would not be a surprise to see both starters in their dugouts by the fifth inning, which means a high-scoring affair is in order.
