PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – APRIL 20: Javier Sanoja #46 of the Miami Marlins is congratulated by teammate Connor Norby #1 after hitting a three-run home run in the eighth inning during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on April 20, 2025 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Marlins won 7-5 in 10 innings. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images)
The Philadelphia Phillies will open a four-game set against the NL East rival Miami Marlins tonight. As the Phillies fight to catch up to the New York Mets for the divisional lead, the Marlins have been getting by in the cellar, a position they are likely to continue occupying after this series.
The Phillies will entrust this start to one of their young arms. Mick Abel has only made three starts this season, but the 23-year-old has produced tremendous results, putting up a 2.35 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. However, it seems that Abel might be cooling off a little bit, as his latest start was by far his worst. The Chicago Cubs put up three runs over four innings against Abel, largely because the righty struggled with his control, giving up three walks in his shortest outing of the season. The Marlins are a significantly easier matchup, allowing Abel a realistic chance at a rebound performance.
Opposing Abel is one of the most disappointing players of the 2025 MLB season. Sandy Alcantara reached the peak of pitching glory in 2022 when he won the Cy Young Award. His play has steadily worsened since then, with this season turning into his worst by a long shot. He has posted a 7.14 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP over 13 starts, numbers that, if they hold steady, should warrant a trip to Triple-A at some point in the season. The Phillies gave Alcantara one of his worst beatings of the season when Philadelphia put up six runs in two innings. A repeat performance could be in the cards here.
Spread
- Phillies -1.5 (+140)
- Marlins +1.5 (-161)
Moneyline
- Phillies -114
- Marlins +103
Totals
- OVER 8.5 (-108)
- UNDER 8.5 (-101)
*The above data was collected on June 16, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Phillies vs Marlins Betting Trends
- The Phillies are 19-15 ATS when playing on the road.
- The Phillies are 7-11 ATS when playing an NL East opponent.
- The OVER is 11-7 when Philadelphia plays a divisional opponent.
- The Marlins are 37-32 ATS on the season.
- The Marlins are 10-7 ATS against divisional opponents.
- The OVER is 11-6 when Miami plays divisional opponents.
Phillies vs Marlins Injury Reports
Philadelphia Phillies
- Bryce Harper, 1B - Out.
Miami Marlins
- Derek Hill, CF - Out.
- Jesus Tinoco, RP - Out.
Phillies vs Marlins Predictions and Picks
Tony Tellez of Tony's Picks writes, "The Phillies are batting .301 in their past five games with a bullpen ERA of 3.71. Miami bats .245 at home. Their bullpen in the past five games has an ERA of 6.48. Philadelphia is 16-9 as a road favorite of -110 or higher with a +4.2-unit return. Miami is 4-11 at home against winning teams with a -5.4-unit loss. Play Philadelphia -122."
The Philadelphia moneyline is easily the best pick on the board. Alcantara has been downright awful, and it is a huge surprise to see the line so close with him on the mound. Abel might not have a great performance, but outpitching Alcantara is almost a given at this point. Take the Phillies here.
