MIAMI, FLORIDA – MAY 18: Taylor Walls #6 of the Tampa Bay Rays scores during the third inning against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on May 18, 2025 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
The Tampa Bay Rays and visiting Houston Astros begin a series at 7 p.m. EST this evening, in a ball game with a quizzical sportsbook line. It's just not the kind of controversial line people debate at water coolers, like odds on a ball team to win. Today's standout number is a total that predicts fireworks at George M. Steinbrenner field, though each club's trends are on the side of low scores.
Tampa Bay is in a slump at home, while Houston's scores are consistently going under their forecasts. Injuries are a nuisance for both teams. The matchup itself has had a trend of low-scoring games.
Something still has tonight's total at a bold O/U (9) runs, and you can look to the pitching mound for a clue. Starting pitchers Ryan Pepiot of Tampa Bay, and Colton Gordon of Houston, have produced only two victories in 10 combined starts this year.
Spread
- Rays -1.5 (+155)
- Astros +1.5 (-175)
Moneyline
- Rays -131
- Astros +122
Total
- OVER 9 (-103)
- UNDER 9 (-111)
*The above data was collected on May 19, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Betting Trends
- Totals have gone UNDER in six consecutive Rays-Astros ball games.
- The Tampa Bay Rays are 3-12 in their last 15 games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of Houston's last six games.
- The Houston Astros are 13-6 in their last 19 games against Tampa Bay.
- Totals have gone under in all five of Houston's last five games in Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Injury Reports
Tampa Bay Rays
- Center fielder Chandler Simpson is day-to-day with right-hand and cheekbone soreness.
- Right fielder Travis Jankowski is on the 10-day IL with an undisclosed injury.
- Relief pitcher Nate Lavender is on the 60-day IL with an elbow injury.
- Relief pitcher Kevin Kelly is on the 15-day IL with a glute injury.
- Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder injury.
Houston Astros
- Left fielder Yordan Alvarez is questionable for the Rays series with a right-hand muscle strain.
- Shortstop Brice Matthews is on Triple-A practice duty after suffering a concussion.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Predictions and Picks
Neither team brings its best form into the series. Tampa's run of failure at home was made worse by last week's unsuccessful road trip, in which the Rays slugged 20 runs in the first series in Toronto, then fell to the Miami Marlins to finish the trip at a forgettable 3-3.
Houston's struggles aren't obvious at 24-22, and yet the Astros were outscored 23 runs to 22 by the Royals and Rangers in the last two series. SS Jeremy Pena is a dynamo, but LF Jose Altuve is looking his age at the plate. "(Altuve is) hitting .183 in his last 21 games with five extra-base hits in that stretch," reported Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle via MSN on Sunday.
Gordon is a stopgap hurler who was lucky not to lose to KC on May 14. Pepiot has more seasoning, more recent work, and an icy lineup to throw at, making Tampa the better pick to win tonight's opener, while making that O/U (9) run-total market too unpredictable to stab at.
