OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA – MAY 13: Russell Westbrook #4 of the Denver Nuggets handles the ball against Alex Caruso #9 of the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first half of game five of the Western Conference semifinals at Paycom Center on May 13, 2025 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Joshua Gateley/Getty Images)
The Denver Nuggets may not win their Western Conference playoff series against Oklahoma City. But the Nuggets have won the respect of NBA handicappers. A trend of wide point spreads on NBA playoff games has been broken by Game 6's tight odds, on the heels of one of the postseason's best Game 5 clashes. Denver is a four-point underdog for tonight's possible elimination game in Ball Arena at 8:30 p.m. EST.
OKC showed that comebacks aren't just a trait of Cinderella teams in 2025, thundering from several points down to school Denver 32-17 in the final quarter and take a 3-2 series advantage over the Nuggets. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the OKC Thunder was among multiple cagers on both teams who disproved all whispers about their health on Tuesday night, leading the #1 seed with 31 points and seven assists.
It's scary for OKC Thunder fans to contemplate their team's playoff record against the point spread. If you draw a (-10) point spread and fall short of covering it by only a few points, everyone is happy except the unlucky folks who wagered in error. Failing to cover minus-four points and still winning? That's tricky.
Spread
- Thunder -4.5 (-102)
- Nuggets +5 (-115)
Moneyline
- Thunder -173
- Nuggets +160
Total
- OVER 216.5 (-108)
- UNDER 216.5 (-108)
*The above data was collected on May 15, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Denver Nuggets vs OKC Thunder Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
- OKC is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against the Denver Nuggets.
- Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five contests at home.
- Totals have gone under in six of OKC's last seven games.
Denver Nuggets vs OKC Thunder Injury Reports
OKC Thunder
- None
Denver Nuggets
- Forward Hunter Tyson is doubtful for Game 6 with a right ankle sprain.
- DaRon Holmes II remains out with right Achilles tendon repair.
Denver Nuggets vs OKC Thunder Predictions and Picks
Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets is also far healthier than advertised. Jokic was the heart and soul of Denver's offense again on Tuesday, scoring 44 points with a double-double that was indistinguishable from The Joker's fine form early in the series. Jamal Murray is sinking treys to give Jokic a kick-out option.
Small forward Jalen Williams' go-ahead three with 1:06 left in Game 5 may prove to be the matchup's turning point if OKC wins Game 6 or Game 7 and advances to Round 3. "It was like an out-of-body experience," Williams told ESPN's Ramona Shelburne when describing the cacophonous host crowd.
Williams' remark may point to the right gambling market for Game 6, though not in a way the OKC cager would appreciate. Oklahoma City probably couldn't have pulled off its comeback win to lead 3-2 if not for the helpful home-court atmosphere, which will turn hostile in tonight's game. If Jokic isn't fading, then neither are the Denver Nuggets. Denver is the pick to win at lovely odds for a toss-up contest.
