DENVER, COLORADO – MAY 11: Isaiah Hartenstein #55 of the Oklahoma City Thunder dunks the ball against Peyton Watson #8 of the Denver Nuggets during the fourth quarter in Game Four of the Western Conference Second Round NBA Playoffs at Ball Arena on May 11, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
The OKC Thunder could do no wrong in the first two games of this NBA postseason. Since then, though, the Western Conference #1 seed has fought through a gauntlet of close games and breathless outcomes, presumably making nonsense out of bookmakers' odds that kept favoring OKC by double-digits all along. Oklahoma City scored an ugly 92-87 road win at Denver in Game 4 that tied the conference semifinal series 2-2, going into tonight's Game 5 at Paycom Center, set to tip off at 9:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
Don't ask oddsmakers about OKC's tight playoff games. They either haven't been watching or they think it's been an accident. Oklahoma City has inspired another double-digit edge on the point spread against the visiting Denver Nuggets, almost as if Nikola Jokic, not Nikola Topic, was Denver's lone injury case.
Analysts think Jokic might as well be headed for the Nuggets' injury list, given his fatigue level in trying to carry the Nugs to Round 3. But the Serbian star's foul trouble against the Thunder in previous games might have left Jokic fresher for Game 4, in which he netted a double-double in Denver's close loss.
Spread
- Thunder -10.5 (-107)
- Nuggets +10.5 (-103)
Moneyline
- Thunder -448
- Nuggets +398
Total
- OVER 221 (-108)
- UNDER 221 (-108)
*The above data was collected on May 13, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Betting Trends
- The OKC Thunder are 10-2 in their last 12 contests at home.
- Totals have gone UNDER in six of Oklahoma City's last nine games.
- Denver is 4-1 ATS in the Nuggets' last five games against OKC.
- Totals have gone OVER in eight of Denver's last 11 road games.
OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Injury Reports
OKC Thunder
- Shooting Guard Nikola Topic remains out for the playoffs with a knee injury.
Denver Nuggets
- Power forward Hunter Tyson is day-to-day with a right ankle sprain.
OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Predictions and Picks
Denver's offense had a bad night in Game 4, but the Nuggets have a knight on their side in Sir Charles. Speaking on TNT's prestigious pregame show for a Cleveland-Indiana game, Charles Barkley blamed the NBA for scheduling too many Thunder-Nuggets tipoffs in too few hours, helping Oklahoma City's lineup rebound in its series against a Denver team that's built around Jokic and a few key role players.
Barkley also said Jokic's fatigue is becoming a factor. "What the NBA did was unfair … making (Denver) play late Friday night, then an early afternoon game," Sir Charles argued, as blogged by Stephen Douglas of Sports Illustrated. "I don't think it's fair to blame everything on The Joker, but I think he's wearing down."
Game 5's point total consensus is too high for two reasons. The crazy atmosphere in OKC won't carry a 12-man ensemble cast like it can when six studs are left on the floor to ride the momentum. But if OKC's reserves get sloppy under the pressure, Denver's tired squad can't capitalize by fast breaking.
