TORONTO, CANADA – APRIL 22: Brady Tkachuk #7 of the Ottawa Senators skates against Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs during the first period in Game Two of the First Round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on April 22, 2025 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
The Toronto Maple Leafs are looking to sweep the Ottawa Senators and advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinal.
The Maple Leafs have had the ultimate puck luck in this series, winning the last two games in overtime. In Game 2, they blew an early 2–0 lead but still came out on top. In Game 3, both teams held a lead at one point; the Leafs gave up a one-goal lead in the third, but once again found the golden goal in OT. Playoff hockey is all about finding ways to win, and for once, the bounces are going Toronto's way.
The Senators are going through a rough stretch. After a blowout loss in Game 1, they bounced back with two tightly contested games, only to fall in overtime in both. Ottawa cleaned up its first-period defense and finally took a lead in the series with a second-period goal, but it lasted just one minute. Now, the Sens will have to regroup and attempt to become just the fifth team in NHL history to come back from a 3–0 deficit.
Spread
- Maple Leafs +1.5 (-255)
- Senators -1.5 (+225)
Moneyline
- Maple Leafs +100
- Senators -113
Total
- OVER 5.5 (-108)
- UNDER 5.5 (-105)
*The above data was collected on April 25, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Maple Leafs vs Senators Betting Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in ten of Toronto's last 13 games.
- Toronto is 8-0 SU in its last eight games.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of Toronto's last seven games on the road.
- Ottawa is 1-4 SU in its last five games.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of Ottawa's last six games against Toronto.
- Ottawa is 2-5 SU in its last seven games when playing at home against Toronto.
Maple Leafs vs Senators Injury Reports
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Jani Hakanpaa, D - Injured Reserve
Ottawa Senators
- Hayden Hodgson, RW - Out
Maple Leafs vs Senators Predictions and Picks
The Maple Leafs face the Senators in Game 4 of this best-of-seven Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series. Toronto ranks seventh in scoring, eighth in goals against, and ninth on the power play. In Game 3, they performed well in the faceoff circle, went 1-for-2 on the power play, and capitalized on numerous Ottawa giveaways. Captain Auston Matthews was named the second star, recording a goal and assisting on the overtime winner. Toronto doesn't need to make many adjustments, but cutting down on penalties would be a smart move.
Despite the fact that each of the first three games has been brutal in its own way for the Senators, they'll continue to fight and be ready for Game 4. Ottawa's special teams rank in the middle of the league, their scoring sits in the lower tier, and their defense is ranked 13th. Brady Tkachuk, who leads the team in goals, scored the game-tying goal in the third period of Game 3. For Ottawa to stay alive, they need to break through the two-goal barrier, start strong in the first period, and aim for 30-plus shots on goal for the game.
Best Bet: Over
Even though the last two games have been close and hit the under, the Senators are determined to avoid a sweep and prevent their season from ending on home ice. Ottawa has had little control of the series and has barely held a lead. They can change that by scoring the first goal early and gradually building momentum. Once the offense gains some confidence, the rest of the game plan can start to fall into place.
