TAMPA, FLORIDA – APRIL 29: Erik Gustafsson #56 of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrate winning Game Six of the First Round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs on an overtime goal by John Tavares #91 against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena on April 29, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
The Toronto Maple Leafs look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead against the Ottawa Senators.
Toronto has been in full control of the series from the start. They've never trailed, and the defense has held Ottawa to two goals or fewer in both games. The Senators did push back in Game Two, though. The Maple Leafs jumped out to a 2-0 lead after the first period but were shut out in the next two, allowing Ottawa to tie the game. Fortunately for Toronto, Max Domi scored three minutes into overtime to seal the win.
The Senators are now in a must-win situation; only four teams in NHL history have come back from a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series. Toronto took care of business on home ice, and now it's Ottawa's turn. While they didn't complete the comeback in Game Two, the Senators can take some encouragement from their improved defense, which finally slowed down the Maple Leafs' offense.
Spread
- Maple Leafs +1.5 (-230)
- Senators -1.5 (+200)
Moneyline
- Maple Leafs +116
- Senators -125
Total
- OVER 5.5 (-117)
- UNDER 5.5 (+101)
*The above data was collected on April 24, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Maple Leafs vs Senators Betting Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 12 games.
- Toronto is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games.
- Toronto is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games against Ottawa.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ottawa's last 7 games.
- Ottawa is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto.
Maple Leafs vs Senators Injury Reports
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Max Pacioretty, LW - Injured Reserve
- Jani Hakanpaa, D - Injured Reserve
Ottawa Senators
- Hayden Hodgson, RW - Out
Maple Leafs vs Senators Predictions and Picks
The Maple Leafs face off against the Ottawa Senators in Game Three of this best-of-seven Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series. Toronto ranks in the top ten in offense, goals against, and power play efficiency. So far in the series, they've shown consistent scoring and found ways to win, even when losing a lead. In Game Two, they excelled at blocking shots and capitalizing on scoring opportunities. Toronto will look for another strong start in the first period and aim to control the pace of the game on the road.
The Senators did a much better job staying out of the penalty box in Game Two compared to the series opener, and they nearly pulled off a comeback win. While their penalty kill still went 0-for-1, at least the penalties didn't cost them like they did in Game One. Ottawa stuck with its defensive mindset and chipped away at the deficit. The keys to winning Game Three will be playing with a lead and scoring the first goal. This month, the Senators have defeated several elite teams at home with low-scoring, defense-first efforts.
The Sens will be playing with urgency and looking to tighten things up on home ice. Despite the overtime loss in Game Two, Ottawa can take some silver linings from shutting out Toronto in the second and third periods. Now, they just need to avoid another slow start, stay out of the penalty box as much as possible, and focus on doing the little things right to get their first win of the series.
