TORONTO, CANADA – JANUARY 20: Brayden Point #21 of the Tampa Bay Lightning skates with the puck against a checking Bobby McMann #74 of the Toronto Maple Leafs during the third period in an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on January 20, 2025 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Maple Leafs defeated the Lightning 5-3. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
The Toronto Maple Leafs look to bounce back after losing to the Florida Panthers 3-1 on the road.
Toronto is 47-26-4 and sits first in the Atlantic Division. The Maple Leafs are just two points ahead of the second-place Tampa Bay Lightning, with five games left to play. This is a huge matchup to create some separation between the two teams. Before the loss to Florida, Toronto had a four-game winning streak and allowed two goals or fewer in all four games.
Tampa Bay is 45-26-6 and second in the Atlantic Division. The Lightning return home riding a four-game home winning streak, including two shutouts. Their scoring is trending up, and the Bolts are ready to make a strong push for the division title.
Spread
- Maple Leafs +1.5 (-173)
- Lightning -1.5 (+160)
Moneyline
- Maple Leafs +147
- Lightning -165
Total
- Over 6 (-107)
- Under 6 (-109)
*The above data was collected on April 9, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Betting Trends
- Toronto is 11-8-1 as an underdog.
- Toronto is 17-20 ATS on the road.
- Toronto is 23-12-2 in over/under on the road.
- Tampa Bay is 39-18-5 as the favorite.
- Tampa Bay is 22-15 ATS at home.
- Tampa Bay is 16-18-3 in over/under at home.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Injury Reports
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Jake McCabe, D — Out.
- David Kampf, C — Out.
- Jani Hakanpaa, D — Injured Reserve.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- None.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Predictions and Picks
The Maple Leafs battle the Lightning in this Atlantic Division showdown. Toronto is 7-2-1 in its last 10 games and has a goal differential of +27. The Maple Leafs are 2-2-1 in their last five road games, with a mix of low-scoring and one-goal contests. Toronto ranks eighth in scoring and fifth on the power play.
In their game against Florida, Toronto trailed 1-0 after the first period, tied it up in the second, but was outscored 2-0 in the third. It was a sloppy performance by the Maple Leafs — they were outshot 37-18, gave the puck away 18 times, and lost the faceoff battle 29-13. Now, they'll play in Tampa on the second night of a back-to-back, with the division lead on the line.
The Lightning are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and have a +74 goal differential, the best in the Eastern Conference. Tampa just wrapped up a four-game road trip with a 2-1-1 record, and the offense is heating up. The Bolts rank sixth in special teams play, fourth in goals against average, and second in scoring.
In their last game, Tampa Bay defeated the New York Rangers 5-1. The Lightning set the tone early with three goals in the first period and never looked back. Despite being outshot 39-23, they went 3-for-4 on the power play and capitalized on their scoring opportunities. Tampa will aim for another fast start at home and continue their offensive surge.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Moneyline
Both teams are neck and neck in the race for the Atlantic Division title. They're both playing well on both sides of the puck and finding ways to win close games down the stretch. This should be a tightly contested matchup, but Tampa Bay has the edge with its strong home-ice play, top-five rankings in both scoring and defense, and an extra day of rest.
