TAMPA, FLORIDA – APRIL 01: Mason Montgomery #48 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates with Danny Jansen #19 after defeating the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-0 at George M. Steinbrenner Field on April 01, 2025 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
The Pittsburgh Pirates will continue their trip down South with a second matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays. The first meeting between these teams ended in dominant fashion for the home team, as the Tampa Bay offense put up a whopping seven runs to jump ahead to a one-game lead in the series. The pitching staff deserves a shoutout as well for holding the Pittsburgh lineup scoreless in the process.
Luckily for Pittsburgh fans, their starter has a good chance of single-handedly drawing the series even and earning the Pirates their second win of the season. Sophomore phenom Paul Skenes is set to take the mound for his second start of the young campaign, a follow-up to a solid, if unspectacular, season-opening performance.
Opposing Skenes is a pitcher of nearly equal caliber. Ryan Pepiot put together an excellent 2024 campaign and immediately followed it with one of the best outings from any pitcher in this young 2025 season. The righty pitched six innings of one-run ball against the Colorado Rockies, striking out eight en route to a Tampa Bay victory. He will need a performance of a similar caliber to keep pace with Skenes here.
Spread
- Pirates -1.5 (+147)
- Rays +1.5 (-176)
Moneyline
- Pirates -120
- Rays +100
Totals
- Over 7 (-110)
- Under 7 (-110)
*The above data was collected on April 2, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Pirates vs Rays Betting Trends
- The Pirates are 1-5 ATS in the season.
- The Pirates are 0-3 ATS as favorites.
- The over has hit in three of four games the Pirates have played as favorites.
- The Rays are 3-2 ATS in the season.
- The Rays are 3-1 ATS in games they play without rest.
- The under has cashed in four of five Rays games this season.
Pirates vs Rays Injury Reports
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Spencer Horwitz, 1B — Out.
- Nick Gonzales, 2B — Out.
Tampa Bay Rays
- Ha-Seong Kim, SS — Out.
- Josh Lowe, RF — Out.
- Richie Palacios, OF — Out.
- Alex Faedo, RP — Out.
Pirates vs Rays Predictions and Picks
David Anicetti of Picks and Parlays writes, "The play here is under. The under has cashed in the 13th of Pittsburgh's last 20 and 16 of Tampa Bay's last. Pittsburgh is 2-3 on the over/under this season, while Tampa Bay is 1-3 on the over/under. Pittsburgh ace Paul Skenes threw 5.1 innings on Opening Day, allowing two runs on three hits, while Tampa Bay starter Ryan Pepiot pitched well in his season opener, allowing two runs on six hits across six innings. Final score prediction, Tampa Bay Rays win but our best play is under."
It is hard to disagree with Anicetti's analysis, but the somewhat hefty price tag attached to the under makes it a significantly less appealing pick. Instead, an underdog bet on Tampa Bay is worth a look. The Rays have been raking at the plate, putting up 20 runs in their last three games. Getting to Skenes is a tough prospect, but Tampa Bay's lineup is disciplined enough to force a move to the bullpen by the fifth or sixth inning. After that, it should be open season for the red-hot Rays en route to a fourth consecutive win.
