MIAMI, FLORIDA – APRIL 01: Luisangel Acuña #2 of the New York Mets tags out Dane Myers #54 of the Miami Marlins during the second inning at loanDepot park on April 01, 2025 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)
The New York Mets and Miami Marlins meet at 4:40 p.m. today, both clubs hoping to win an NL East series two games to one. But within this week's MLB prediction markets, the Mets-Marlins finale in Little Havana is viewed less as a head-on clash for a three-game series win, and more of a mismatch that favors New York.
The Mets and Marlins matchup has looked even for most of two games. Monday's series opener set up as a pitcher's duel until New York chewed Miami's starter Cal Quantrill like a Big Apple in the fifth frame. Mets superstar Pete Alonso hit a grand slam to punctuate the midgame rally.
But the Marlins won convincingly in the game to follow, fielding the baseball better than the Mets, and piercing hurler Kodai Senga early in a 4-2 win. Kyle Stowers, who's slugging .500 so far, batted a two-run homer for Miami. Meanwhile, the Mets' defense is under fire, following the fielder's flubs that proved pivotal in Tuesday's loss. Why do the next day's betting odds favor New York?
Spread
- Mets -1.5 (-124)
- Marlins +1.5 (+103)
Moneyline
- Mets -210
- Marlins +173
Total
- Over 8.5 (-109)
- Under 8.5 (-111)
*The above data was collected on April 2, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Trends
- Miami is 5-1 ATS in the last six games.
- The total has gone over in seven of the Marlins' last nine games.
- New York is 11-5 in its last 16 NL East divisional games.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Injury Reports
New York Mets
- Left fielder Jeff McNeil is on the 10-day IL with a strained right oblique.
- Shortstop Ronny Mauricio is on the 10-day IL recovering from right knee surgery.
- Catcher Francisco Alvarez is on the 10-day IL with a fractured hamate in his left hand.
Miami Marlins
- Left fielder Jesus Sanchez is on the 10-day IL with a strained left oblique.
- Second baseman Connor Norby is on the 10-day IL with a strained left oblique.
- Relief pitcher Jesus Tinoco is on the 15-day IL with a lower back strain.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Predictions and Picks
Are New York's odds to win based on confidence in probable pitcher Clay Holmes, who began his year by losing to Houston? More likely, they're due to a lack of confidence in Miami's opposing pitcher. P Connor Gillispie will start Wednesday's deciding game for the Marlins after getting into trouble early against the Pittsburgh Pirates last Friday, and giving up all of the Pirates' runs in a 4-3 loss.
Gillispie is a stopgap behind Sandy Alcantara in Miami's rotation. "Gillispie had just eight career innings under his belt before this outing," wrote RotoWire of the Marlins-Pirates series, "and is filling in for injured Marlins starters."
Watch for a good number of baserunners for both teams, given the Marlins' shaky pitching and the jittery Mets' fielding errors. In a longer ball game, Alonso's cast of sluggers will benefit from the extra at-bats, making New York into a smart Run Line pick.
