It seems unusual, a November hurricane in the Gulf Of Mexico, but there's actually been 3 hurricanes hit Florida in November, the most recent only 2 years ago.
WFLA reports that 3 hurricanes have hit Florida, "Yankee (1935), Kate (1985), and Nicole (2022) did make landfall in the Sunshine State. Hurricanes Yankee and Nicole made landfall as a Category 1, while Kate made landfall as a 2." Now that Rafael has formed, it does look like it's possible that a fourth storm could be added to that list. Key West is just off the eastern edge of the cone. So - maybe.
I'd like to say that even if Rafael does hit Florida by way of Key West, that models show it likely won't be a strong storm, with the models showing somewhere between a Tropical Storm and a Category 1 as it nears the area. But, as we know, models come with the possibilities of change, so we'll just need to wait and see. Tropical Storm watches are up for the Florida Keys.
Southwest Florida Effects from November Hurricane Rafael
It looks like we will get a little something from this storm, Southwest Florida is likely in for a breezy Wednesday. We could also get some rain as the outer bands of Rafael should reach us. Hopefully the speed of the storm will keep us clear of any large surge or soaking rains. S.O.B. on Fort Myers Beach should be open for business in about a month and we're not looking for any setbacks.
Expectations
It's tough being a November hurricane, the environment doesn't really support it. Increased sheer, and some cooling of the Gulf waters make it a lot harder to develop. The water temperature at Key West is 82 degrees, and it's only 77 degrees off the coast of Naples. If you follow along with hurricane season, you know this is down quite a bit from when the other hurricanes passed by us. And that's why I'm not really worried about Rafael.
Additional info can be found on our Hurricane Guide. The season officially ends on 11/30, so of course, another November hurricane after Rafael is entirely possible.
